US says trade penalties on Chinese fair, Beijing says could sour ties between nations
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama's decision to impose trade penalties on Chinese tires has infuriated Beijing at a time when the United States badly needs Chinese help on climate change, nuclear standoffs with Iran and North Korea and the global economy.
China condemned the White House's announcement late Friday as protectionist and said it violated global trade rules. At home, the punitive tariffs on all car and light truck tires coming into the U.S. from China may placate union supporters who are important to the president's health care push.
To the White House, it was "simply about enforcing the rules of the road and creating a trade system that is based on those rules and is fair for everyone," spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters traveling with Obama on Saturday to a health care event in Minneapolis.
Chen Deming, China's minister of commerce, said the penalties would hurt relations with the U.S. A ministry statement said Obama had "compromised to the political pressure of the U.S. domestic trade protectionism."
"The Chinese government will continue to uphold the legitimate interests of China's domestic industry and has the right to take corresponding measures," Deming said.
Obama had until this coming Thursday to accept, reject or modify a U.S. International Trade Commission ruling that a rising tide of Chinese tires into the U.S. hurts American producers. The United Steelworkers blames the increase for the loss of thousands of American jobs.
The federal trade panel recommended a 55 percent tariff in the first year, 45 percent in the second year and 35 percent in the third year. Obama settled on 35 percent the first year, 30 percent in the second and 25 percent in the third, Gibbs said
"For trade to work for everybody, it has to be based on fairness and rules. We're simply enforcing those rules and would expect the Chinese to understand those rules," Gibbs said.
The decision comes as U.S. officials are working with the Chinese and other nations to plan an economic summit in Pittsburgh on Sept. 24-25 of the 20 leading rich and developing nations. China will be a major presence at the meeting, and the United States will be eager to show it supports free trade.
Many of the nearly two dozen world leaders Obama is hosting have made strong statements critical of countries that protect their key industries. Obama, too, has spoken out strongly against protectionism, and other countries will view his decision on tires as a test of that stance.
Governments around the world have suggested the U.S. talks tough against protectionism only when its own industries are not threatened. U.S. rhetoric on free trade also has been questioned because of a "Buy American" provision in the U.S. stimulus package.
The tire decision could have ramifications on issues such as the nuclear disputes with Iran and North Korea and on efforts to address climate change. China is the world's third-largest economy and a veto-holding member of the U.N. Security Council.
Roy Littlefield, executive vice president of the Tire Industry Association, which opposes the tariff, said it would not save American jobs. He said the penalties would cause tire manufacturers to move production to another country with less strict environmental and safety controls, less active unions and lower costs than the United States.
The steelworkers union brought the original case in April, accusing China of making a recent push to unload more tires ahead of Obama's expected action. The union says more than 5,000 tire workers have lost jobs since 2004, as Chinese tire overwhelmed the U.S. market.
The U.S. trade representative's office said four tire plants closed in 2006 and 2007 and three more are closing this year. During that time, just one new plant opened. U.S. imports of Chinese tires more than tripled from 2004 to 2008 and China's market share in the U.S. went from 4.7 percent of tires purchased in 2004 to 16.7 percent in 2008, the office said.
In a two-page statement China said the tariffs do not square with the facts.
There hasn't been an obvious increase of exports of tires to the U.S., the statement said, citing a 2.2 percent increase in 2008 from 2007, and a 16 percent fall in exports in the first half of 2009 compared with first half of 2008.
The new tariffs, on top of an existing 4 percent tariff on all tire imports, take effect Sept. 26.
For the Chinese government, the tire dispute threatens an economic relationship crucial to China's economic growth. There was speculation before the decision that new tariffs could produce public pressure on Beijing to retaliate, potentially leading to a trade war.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Friday, September 4, 2009
中国政府呼吁人民投资金子和银子
China Urges Citizens to Buy Gold and Silver
People in North America and Europe are used to seeing plenty of advertisements for gold and silver – from opportunists urging people to get rid of their “useless” gold and silver for cash! Clearly this is a bullish indicator for the market, as these companies wouldn't be spending large amounts of advertising dollars to hype “scrap” sales, and then even more money buying the metals if they didn't see the opportunity for big profits.
It turns out that there is also “advertising” for gold and silver in China, too. The big difference here is that it is China's government which is advertising the “opportunities” in gold and silver and it is urging the Chinese people to buy gold and silver.
An article from mining web-site, Mineweb quotes a program which appears on China's largest (state-owned) television company, promoting bullion-buying in general, but stressing that silver is currently the best value for investors (no surprise to regular readers):
China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive in 2007 but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in.
It is only in the last three years that the Chinese government significantly relaxed the rules for precious metals buying for its citizens. Given that the Chinese people (like most of Asia) already had a greater appetite for gold and silver than people in most Western nations, the explicit urging by the government itself for people to load up on bullion clearly implies the expectation of a strong future for precious metals. With a population greater than 20% of the world's total and an abundance of savings, this could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy – especially given the tiny size of the precious metals market, relative to many other commodities.
It is also clear that China is literally “putting its money where its mouth is.” China has devoted an enormous amount of resources building up its domestic gold mining industry, soaring to #1 in the world this decade, and it recently stunned the world with the announcement of a huge increase in its official, national holdings (see “China now has 5th largest gold reserves”).
China's gold reserves jumped by 76% from its last announcement in 2002 – up to 1,054 tons. Given that official government purchases on the open market are recorded and announced, this means that rather than buying all that gold openly on the market (which would have driven up the price while they were buying) China has been accumulating gold surreptitiously, through buying up its domestic production – strongly suggesting that ramping-up its gold production was part of a long-term strategic plan to become one of the world's largest (if not the largest) holder of gold among governments.
As I have written previously, there appear to be two, related goals in this strategy. Most-obviously, the Chinese government is now spending its U.S. dollar-holdings faster than it is accumulating them. This is no surprise, given the increasing rhetoric (and increasing intensity) expressing concern about the reckless fiscal policies of the U.S. government – and its worries over the future value of its vast accumulation of U.S. dollar-based debt.
The second goal which the Chinese government appears to be moving toward is having its own currency, the renminbi, replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. There have simply been too many actions on this front to list them all, however some of the more significant initiatives are bilateral trade agreements (which exclude the use of the U.S. dollar), currency swaps with its trading partner (which substitute the renminbi in bilateral trade), and authorizing its principal, coastal exporting cities to begin conducting most or all of their trade using renminbi.
These initiatives are entirely separate from the buying-spree the Chinese government has been engaging in, dumping U.S. dollars for a vast assortment of “hard assets” - primarily commodities and commodity-producers.
As I wrote a week ago, in “Gold Wars, Part II: The Empire Strikes Back”, both the move by China to replace the U.S. dollar and its big push to accumulate large gold reserves are clearly an economic threat to the United States. It is only the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar which has kept its value grossly inflated relative to its actual worth and kept U.S. borrowing costs artificially low.
A plunge by the U.S. dollar to its real value (somewhere not far above zero) would unleash crippling inflation in the U.S. (if not actual hyperinflation), while a rise in borrowing costs would strangle its crippled economy. Given that suppressing the price of gold has been a principal strategy by Western bankers to keep the dollar artificially propped up, China's zeal for gold (and silver) is also strongly against U.S. interests.
Whether the official urging by the Chinese government for its citizens to buy precious metals is merely prudent, “fatherly” advise to its citizens, or part of a somewhat more sinister campaign the result will be the same: soaring precious metals prices indefinitely into the future.
With gold and silver having just broken-out above their summer trading ranges (the weakest season of the year for the precious metals market), precious metals appear poised for spectacular runs this fall, as I suggested a month ago (see “Two short-term scenarios for Gold Market”). Those who have continued waiting for cheaper prices have been shut out of this market (notably the price-conscious buyers in India), and the window for buying at current, bargain prices appears to be closing quickly.
People in North America and Europe are used to seeing plenty of advertisements for gold and silver – from opportunists urging people to get rid of their “useless” gold and silver for cash! Clearly this is a bullish indicator for the market, as these companies wouldn't be spending large amounts of advertising dollars to hype “scrap” sales, and then even more money buying the metals if they didn't see the opportunity for big profits.
It turns out that there is also “advertising” for gold and silver in China, too. The big difference here is that it is China's government which is advertising the “opportunities” in gold and silver and it is urging the Chinese people to buy gold and silver.
An article from mining web-site, Mineweb quotes a program which appears on China's largest (state-owned) television company, promoting bullion-buying in general, but stressing that silver is currently the best value for investors (no surprise to regular readers):
China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive in 2007 but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in.
It is only in the last three years that the Chinese government significantly relaxed the rules for precious metals buying for its citizens. Given that the Chinese people (like most of Asia) already had a greater appetite for gold and silver than people in most Western nations, the explicit urging by the government itself for people to load up on bullion clearly implies the expectation of a strong future for precious metals. With a population greater than 20% of the world's total and an abundance of savings, this could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy – especially given the tiny size of the precious metals market, relative to many other commodities.
It is also clear that China is literally “putting its money where its mouth is.” China has devoted an enormous amount of resources building up its domestic gold mining industry, soaring to #1 in the world this decade, and it recently stunned the world with the announcement of a huge increase in its official, national holdings (see “China now has 5th largest gold reserves”).
China's gold reserves jumped by 76% from its last announcement in 2002 – up to 1,054 tons. Given that official government purchases on the open market are recorded and announced, this means that rather than buying all that gold openly on the market (which would have driven up the price while they were buying) China has been accumulating gold surreptitiously, through buying up its domestic production – strongly suggesting that ramping-up its gold production was part of a long-term strategic plan to become one of the world's largest (if not the largest) holder of gold among governments.
As I have written previously, there appear to be two, related goals in this strategy. Most-obviously, the Chinese government is now spending its U.S. dollar-holdings faster than it is accumulating them. This is no surprise, given the increasing rhetoric (and increasing intensity) expressing concern about the reckless fiscal policies of the U.S. government – and its worries over the future value of its vast accumulation of U.S. dollar-based debt.
The second goal which the Chinese government appears to be moving toward is having its own currency, the renminbi, replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. There have simply been too many actions on this front to list them all, however some of the more significant initiatives are bilateral trade agreements (which exclude the use of the U.S. dollar), currency swaps with its trading partner (which substitute the renminbi in bilateral trade), and authorizing its principal, coastal exporting cities to begin conducting most or all of their trade using renminbi.
These initiatives are entirely separate from the buying-spree the Chinese government has been engaging in, dumping U.S. dollars for a vast assortment of “hard assets” - primarily commodities and commodity-producers.
As I wrote a week ago, in “Gold Wars, Part II: The Empire Strikes Back”, both the move by China to replace the U.S. dollar and its big push to accumulate large gold reserves are clearly an economic threat to the United States. It is only the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar which has kept its value grossly inflated relative to its actual worth and kept U.S. borrowing costs artificially low.
A plunge by the U.S. dollar to its real value (somewhere not far above zero) would unleash crippling inflation in the U.S. (if not actual hyperinflation), while a rise in borrowing costs would strangle its crippled economy. Given that suppressing the price of gold has been a principal strategy by Western bankers to keep the dollar artificially propped up, China's zeal for gold (and silver) is also strongly against U.S. interests.
Whether the official urging by the Chinese government for its citizens to buy precious metals is merely prudent, “fatherly” advise to its citizens, or part of a somewhat more sinister campaign the result will be the same: soaring precious metals prices indefinitely into the future.
With gold and silver having just broken-out above their summer trading ranges (the weakest season of the year for the precious metals market), precious metals appear poised for spectacular runs this fall, as I suggested a month ago (see “Two short-term scenarios for Gold Market”). Those who have continued waiting for cheaper prices have been shut out of this market (notably the price-conscious buyers in India), and the window for buying at current, bargain prices appears to be closing quickly.
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