根据中国工商行政管理总局公布的最新数字，到9月25号9点，经过工商执法人员的检查，共下架退市不合格奶制品7899.5吨。为消费者退换奶制品770吨。
毒奶粉引发中国食品安全危机。越来越多的亚洲和欧洲国家发出禁止进口中国奶制品的禁令。
国际组织批评
世界卫生组织和联合国儿童基金会的驻华机构周三发表联合声明，就三鹿及其他奶粉公司生产的奶粉毒害婴幼儿事件'深表痛心和关注'。
声明说'在食品生产和销售领域对公众的欺骗行为是无法接受的，故意污染婴幼儿食品的行为更应受到谴责。'
世界卫生组织和联合国儿童基金会还敦促母亲们对婴儿用母乳喂养。因为'没有任何一种奶粉同母乳一样安全可靠'。
目前，毒奶粉已经导致5万多婴幼儿患病。各地医院挤满了带着孩子就医检查的父母。
加强奶品安全措施
为挽回民众的信心，中国农业部日前发出文件，通知开展一个月的全国奶站专项整治行动。
通知要求各地立即成立由农业，畜牧兽医部门，工业，公安，卫生，工商和质检等部门参与的整治行动小组。
对所有奶站，特别是私人，流动奶站登记造册。将奶站百分之百的纳入监督管理范围，以保证生鲜奶和原料奶的质量安全。
同时，在刚刚召开的中国国际食品安全与质量控制会议上，中国质检局的高级官员表示，将在未来两年内在全国建立400个新的产品质量检测中心，安装先进的检测设备，其中80%将是食品质量检测中心。
特供食品
然而，就在掺了三聚氰胺的三鹿等奶粉导致婴幼儿患病，民众对食品安全信心动摇的同时，另一个'中国特色'的现象也引起了人们的关注---特供食品。
近来，中国国家机关食品特供中心的存在在中国的互联网上曝光并广为流传，遭致网民非议。
据国务院中央国家机关食品特供中心的副主任说，特供食品是面向中央国家机关和国务院机关老干部的指定专用食品。包括粮食，蔬菜，水果，畜禽水产等日常食品。
特供食品的生产，选择标准极为严格，不使用化肥，农药，生长激素，保证无污染，无任何添加剂，防腐剂，不使用基因工程技术。
中国对高级干部这种安全的食品供应同广大民众的食品安全环境形成巨大反差。
在毒奶粉危机中，目前唯一污染奶制品中没被点名的名牌三元牛奶成了人们争购的对象。而三元牛奶是'国宴特供'的牛奶。
中新网9月25日消息 国务院机关老干部活动中心负责人今天接受中国新闻网记者采访时，就近日网上出现的所谓题为“祝咏兰主任在中央国家机关特供产品授牌仪式上的讲话”的贴文进行了说明。
这位负责人说，国务院机关老干部活动中心没有所谓的“国务院中央国家机关食品特供中心”，没有举行过所谓的“授牌仪式”，也没有“祝咏兰”这个人，网上相关信息纯属谣传。
Thursday, September 25, 2008
PetroChina's Sacrifice Acknowledged
Buy-recommended PetroChina (PTR), with estimated net present value [NPV] of $220 a share, offers portfolio representation mainly in crude oil production and non-U.S. domicile at a low McDep Ratio. First half results reported today disclosed the effect of price controls on refined products that were not quite as adverse as anticipated. Rising production volume was close to expectations.
The integrated company may also have been able to reduce the unfavorable impact of the Chinese “windfall profits tax” by charging itself a lower than expected crude oil price for volumes sent to its own refineries. Allowing for reduced tax on crude oil, continuing price controls on natural gas and diminished price controls on refined products, NPV is supported by projected cash flow capitalized at unlevered multiples (PV/Ebitda) related to reserve life (Adjusted R/P). Sticking to its policy of paying out 45% of earnings in dividends, management reduced the declared dividend in line with lower reported earnings. The cost of sacrificing profits, hopefully only temporary, seems amply reflected in a decline in stock price of 52% from the high last year. Meanwhile, crude oil price trends upward with the latest quote of $118 a barrel for delivery over the next six years above the 40-week average of $107.
The integrated company may also have been able to reduce the unfavorable impact of the Chinese “windfall profits tax” by charging itself a lower than expected crude oil price for volumes sent to its own refineries. Allowing for reduced tax on crude oil, continuing price controls on natural gas and diminished price controls on refined products, NPV is supported by projected cash flow capitalized at unlevered multiples (PV/Ebitda) related to reserve life (Adjusted R/P). Sticking to its policy of paying out 45% of earnings in dividends, management reduced the declared dividend in line with lower reported earnings. The cost of sacrificing profits, hopefully only temporary, seems amply reflected in a decline in stock price of 52% from the high last year. Meanwhile, crude oil price trends upward with the latest quote of $118 a barrel for delivery over the next six years above the 40-week average of $107.
The Wall Street Journal: Web Users Fault China's Baidu
HONG KONG -- Chinese Internet-search company Baidu.com Inc. has been defending itself against claims in the media and Internet chat forums that it allegedly censored online information about the growing scandal over tainted milk powder.
The company, which runs China's largest search engine by market share, has faced criticism from users of popular sites such as online community Tianya.com and forum host Mop.com. The users accuse the company of working on behalf of milk producers to bury online links to news stories about the contamination that has killed several infants and sickened thousands of children.
Baidu acknowledged it was approached by several dairy producers who offered to pay the company to drop critical news articles from its search results. Baidu said it "flat out refused" to screen unfavorable news.
The Web site of Chinese newspaper 21st Century Business Herald posted screenshots of purported Internet searches on Sept. 12 for a blog post criticizing one of the country's milk producers. The newspaper's screenshot purported to show 11 search results, while Google Inc.'s China site, Google.cn, showed 11,400.
On Friday, a search for the article by its title turned up 378 results on Baidu and 13,500 results on Google.cn. Wednesday, the search showed 3,860 hits on Baidu and 39,300 on Google.
Baidu declined to comment on the alleged differences.
Internet analysts said technological differences could explain potentially different search results.
The company, which runs China's largest search engine by market share, has faced criticism from users of popular sites such as online community Tianya.com and forum host Mop.com. The users accuse the company of working on behalf of milk producers to bury online links to news stories about the contamination that has killed several infants and sickened thousands of children.
Baidu acknowledged it was approached by several dairy producers who offered to pay the company to drop critical news articles from its search results. Baidu said it "flat out refused" to screen unfavorable news.
The Web site of Chinese newspaper 21st Century Business Herald posted screenshots of purported Internet searches on Sept. 12 for a blog post criticizing one of the country's milk producers. The newspaper's screenshot purported to show 11 search results, while Google Inc.'s China site, Google.cn, showed 11,400.
On Friday, a search for the article by its title turned up 378 results on Baidu and 13,500 results on Google.cn. Wednesday, the search showed 3,860 hits on Baidu and 39,300 on Google.
Baidu declined to comment on the alleged differences.
Internet analysts said technological differences could explain potentially different search results.
The Wall Street Journal: Chinese shares climb, bucking region's trend
HONG KONG -- Chinese stock markets jumped, bucking declines across much of Asia as investors generally preferred to await further word on negotiations over the U.S. government's $700 billion rescue plan for the financial sector.
The jump in Shanghai came after China Unicom raised its stake in China United Telecommunications, raising hopes that more mainland firms could buy back shares to support beaten-down valuations.
The Shanghai Composite gained 3.6% to 2297.50. China United Telecommunications gained 2.5%, adding to Wednesday's 7.7% surge, after its parent raised its stake to 60.97%, from 60.74%. China Unicom intends to buy as much as 2% of China United's shares.
"The market sentiment in the mainland markets has been steadily improving as some corporations are directly purchasing shares. Strong turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen suggests the markets are stabilizing, and we could see more gains," said Patrick Yiu, associate director at CASH Asset Management in Hong Kong.
State-owned blue chips recorded the biggest gains. Baoshan Iron & Steel climbed 7.5%, and China Life Insurance jumped 7.9%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index eased 0.1% to 18934.43. Bank of East Asia gained 3.4% as tycoon Li Ka-shing bought into the lender, and a run on the bank showed signs of abating. The stock had skidded 6.9% on Wednesday.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 0.9% to 12006.53. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group gave up 2%. Shipping firms were among the biggest decliners, with selling triggered by the overnight drop in the industry's benchmark Baltic Dry Index. Nippon Yusen lost 5.7%, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines sank 6.3%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.1%. BHP Billiton lost 3.9% as metals prices remained weak.
In Mumbai, the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 1.1% to 13547.18. S. Tulsian, a member of India's National Stock Exchange, said the weakness was linked to the expiration of September derivative contracts Thursday as well as uncertainty hovering over the U.S. bailout proposal.
"Investors are not willing to take risks and are happy with the index trading in a range. The upcoming earnings season is also expected to throw some mixed results," he said.
The jump in Shanghai came after China Unicom raised its stake in China United Telecommunications, raising hopes that more mainland firms could buy back shares to support beaten-down valuations.
The Shanghai Composite gained 3.6% to 2297.50. China United Telecommunications gained 2.5%, adding to Wednesday's 7.7% surge, after its parent raised its stake to 60.97%, from 60.74%. China Unicom intends to buy as much as 2% of China United's shares.
"The market sentiment in the mainland markets has been steadily improving as some corporations are directly purchasing shares. Strong turnover in Shanghai and Shenzhen suggests the markets are stabilizing, and we could see more gains," said Patrick Yiu, associate director at CASH Asset Management in Hong Kong.
State-owned blue chips recorded the biggest gains. Baoshan Iron & Steel climbed 7.5%, and China Life Insurance jumped 7.9%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index eased 0.1% to 18934.43. Bank of East Asia gained 3.4% as tycoon Li Ka-shing bought into the lender, and a run on the bank showed signs of abating. The stock had skidded 6.9% on Wednesday.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei Stock Average of 225 companies fell 0.9% to 12006.53. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group gave up 2%. Shipping firms were among the biggest decliners, with selling triggered by the overnight drop in the industry's benchmark Baltic Dry Index. Nippon Yusen lost 5.7%, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines sank 6.3%.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 shed 1.1%. BHP Billiton lost 3.9% as metals prices remained weak.
In Mumbai, the 30-stock Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 1.1% to 13547.18. S. Tulsian, a member of India's National Stock Exchange, said the weakness was linked to the expiration of September derivative contracts Thursday as well as uncertainty hovering over the U.S. bailout proposal.
"Investors are not willing to take risks and are happy with the index trading in a range. The upcoming earnings season is also expected to throw some mixed results," he said.
The Wall Street Journal: China Extends Resources Push With Global Deals
HONG KONG -- Corporate China struck deals Thursday to buy Syrian oil assets for $2 billion and to take a significant stake in an Australian iron-ore producer, furthering its quest to secure natural resources abroad.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, won the bidding for Tanganyika Oil Co., edging out Indian rival Oil & Natural Gas Corp. for access to the Canada-listed company's Syrian fields.
Separately, Chinese steel producer Jiangsu Shagang Group Co. made a complex deal to merge its Australian assets with Grange Resources Ltd., giving it a 45% stake in a combined entity that would be valued at one billion Australian dollars (US$833.7 million).
China's foreign acquisitions have been dominated by efforts to secure resources to satiate its economic engine. So far this year, Chinese companies have completed $26.3 billion worth of deals for businesses in the oil, natural-gas and mining industries, according to data provider Dealogic. Natural-resources deals represent 58% of the value of China's total outbound mergers and acquisitions transactions this year.
The Tanganyika transaction strengthens China's ties with the oil-rich Middle East. The company is based in Calgary, Alberta, and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but its oil production comes from Syria, which the U.S. State Department lists as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Still, Syria is a minor player in oil. Many of its fields are in decline, and its production last year accounted for only 1.6% of the Middle East's total, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. In the three months ended June 30, Tanganyika posted gross average daily oil production of 16,700 barrels.
Chinese state oil companies have sought resources in many places where U.S. and European oil majors are reluctant to plant their flag. The latest deal follows an earlier acquisition by China National Petroleum Corp. and ONGC of a Syrian oil field owned by Petro-Canada Co. Sinopec is also developing a field in Iran, while rival PetroChina Ltd. is exploring for resources in Sudan.
The bidding for Tangayika pit Sinopec against ONGC for the second time this year. ONGC beat Sinopec to acquire London-listed Imperial Energy Corp., whose assets are in Russia, for $2.6 billion.
China's decision to target resources in politically risky nations comes after it suffered a major setback in the 2005 failed $18.5 billion hostile bid by China National Offshore Oil Corp., or Cnooc, to buy Unocal Corp. More recently, China has succeeded in extending its reach by taking a different approach. Cnooc unit China Oilfield Services Ltd. last month launched a $2.5 billion friendly takeover of a Norwegian oil field services provider, Awilco Offshore ASA.
Lehman Brothers Asia Ltd. advised Sinopec on the Tanganyika deal, showing the continued prowess of the future arm of Japan's Nomura Holdings Inc. in helping China land international deals. It also advised Cnooc's oil-field-services arm on the acquisition of Awilco as well as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. on its joint bid with Alcoa Inc. for a stake in Rio Tinto PLC. Scotia Waterous Inc. advised Tanganyika.
Sinopec's offer for Tanganyika is 31.50 Canadian dollars (US$30.38) a share. That represents a 21% premium to the company's Wednesday close of C$26 a share. The transaction has been approved by both companies' boards but still needs regulatory approval. Tanganyika earned a $29.8 million net profit on revenue of $78.2 million in the first half of this year.
China's search for mining resources has focused on Australia. Booming demand for steel in China has driven up iron-ore prices and pushed steelmakers like Jiangsu Shagang to increase their investments in Australia. Sinosteel Corp. this year succeeded in a hostile bid for Australian miner Midwest Corp., a deal that was finalized in recent weeks.
Grange Resources said Thursday it plans to merge with iron-ore-pellet producer Australian Bulk Minerals, which is controlled by a consortium that includes Jiangsu Shagang. The companies said the deal would shore up funding for Grange's planned US$1.6 billion Southdown iron-ore project. Grange has a market capitalization of about A$219 million.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, won the bidding for Tanganyika Oil Co., edging out Indian rival Oil & Natural Gas Corp. for access to the Canada-listed company's Syrian fields.
Separately, Chinese steel producer Jiangsu Shagang Group Co. made a complex deal to merge its Australian assets with Grange Resources Ltd., giving it a 45% stake in a combined entity that would be valued at one billion Australian dollars (US$833.7 million).
China's foreign acquisitions have been dominated by efforts to secure resources to satiate its economic engine. So far this year, Chinese companies have completed $26.3 billion worth of deals for businesses in the oil, natural-gas and mining industries, according to data provider Dealogic. Natural-resources deals represent 58% of the value of China's total outbound mergers and acquisitions transactions this year.
The Tanganyika transaction strengthens China's ties with the oil-rich Middle East. The company is based in Calgary, Alberta, and listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange, but its oil production comes from Syria, which the U.S. State Department lists as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Still, Syria is a minor player in oil. Many of its fields are in decline, and its production last year accounted for only 1.6% of the Middle East's total, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy. In the three months ended June 30, Tanganyika posted gross average daily oil production of 16,700 barrels.
Chinese state oil companies have sought resources in many places where U.S. and European oil majors are reluctant to plant their flag. The latest deal follows an earlier acquisition by China National Petroleum Corp. and ONGC of a Syrian oil field owned by Petro-Canada Co. Sinopec is also developing a field in Iran, while rival PetroChina Ltd. is exploring for resources in Sudan.
The bidding for Tangayika pit Sinopec against ONGC for the second time this year. ONGC beat Sinopec to acquire London-listed Imperial Energy Corp., whose assets are in Russia, for $2.6 billion.
China's decision to target resources in politically risky nations comes after it suffered a major setback in the 2005 failed $18.5 billion hostile bid by China National Offshore Oil Corp., or Cnooc, to buy Unocal Corp. More recently, China has succeeded in extending its reach by taking a different approach. Cnooc unit China Oilfield Services Ltd. last month launched a $2.5 billion friendly takeover of a Norwegian oil field services provider, Awilco Offshore ASA.
Lehman Brothers Asia Ltd. advised Sinopec on the Tanganyika deal, showing the continued prowess of the future arm of Japan's Nomura Holdings Inc. in helping China land international deals. It also advised Cnooc's oil-field-services arm on the acquisition of Awilco as well as Aluminum Corp. of China Ltd. on its joint bid with Alcoa Inc. for a stake in Rio Tinto PLC. Scotia Waterous Inc. advised Tanganyika.
Sinopec's offer for Tanganyika is 31.50 Canadian dollars (US$30.38) a share. That represents a 21% premium to the company's Wednesday close of C$26 a share. The transaction has been approved by both companies' boards but still needs regulatory approval. Tanganyika earned a $29.8 million net profit on revenue of $78.2 million in the first half of this year.
China's search for mining resources has focused on Australia. Booming demand for steel in China has driven up iron-ore prices and pushed steelmakers like Jiangsu Shagang to increase their investments in Australia. Sinosteel Corp. this year succeeded in a hostile bid for Australian miner Midwest Corp., a deal that was finalized in recent weeks.
Grange Resources said Thursday it plans to merge with iron-ore-pellet producer Australian Bulk Minerals, which is controlled by a consortium that includes Jiangsu Shagang. The companies said the deal would shore up funding for Grange's planned US$1.6 billion Southdown iron-ore project. Grange has a market capitalization of about A$219 million.
Friday, September 19, 2008
Bank fo China Takes Stake in Rothschild Bank
Bank of China, the world’s fifth largest bank, said it was opening its wallet for a stake in the Rothschild banking dynasty.
Bank of China is coughing up 236.3 million euros ($341 million) for a 20 percent stake in La Compagnie Financière Edmond de Rothschild, the family-held asset management and private banking business. One of the few remaining independent merchant banks in Europe, the French firm was founded in 1953 by Edmond de Rothschild and has been chaired by his son Benjamin de Rothschild since 1997.
While The Financial Times noted that the move was the first strategic investment by a leading Chinese bank in the eurozone, Min Zhu, the bank’s executive vice chairman, said Bank of China had no intentions of jumping into any deals for the growing list of struggling Western banks.
“We don’t have the capacity yet,” he told The Times of London.
Bank of China is coughing up 236.3 million euros ($341 million) for a 20 percent stake in La Compagnie Financière Edmond de Rothschild, the family-held asset management and private banking business. One of the few remaining independent merchant banks in Europe, the French firm was founded in 1953 by Edmond de Rothschild and has been chaired by his son Benjamin de Rothschild since 1997.
While The Financial Times noted that the move was the first strategic investment by a leading Chinese bank in the eurozone, Min Zhu, the bank’s executive vice chairman, said Bank of China had no intentions of jumping into any deals for the growing list of struggling Western banks.
“We don’t have the capacity yet,” he told The Times of London.
China's Sovereign Wealth Fund Turns Inward
For all the Western attention devoted to China Investment Corp.’s big overseas purchases, the sovereign wealth fund’s mandate to trouble-shoot areas of the domestic economy has drawn less interest. But it is this mission that China called upon it to perform this week, specifically, to shore up the country’s distressed stock market, which has essentially wiped out all of the gains achieved over the past eight years.
After taking headline-grabbing, billion-dollar equity stakes in the Blackstone Group and Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ) last year, China’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund will buy shares in three of the country’s biggest state-owned banks, whose shares have more than halved in value this year. The fund will take stakes in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (other-otc: ICBAF - news - people ), Bank of China (other-otc: BACHF - news - people ) and China Construction Bank (other-otc: CICHF - news - people ) to calm panicked investors amid a global credit crisis, the state news agency Xinhua said Thursday. The move sent all three banks’ shares soaring more than 15% in Hong Kong on Friday.
This inward recapitalization “may not be part of the long-term strategic direction of CIC,” said a Shanghai-based analyst for a foreign investment bank. The move is also a short-term setback, even if a necessary one, for the government’s overall program of partial privatization of state-run companies, some observed.
The desire to reap greater rewards on the country’s trillion-dollar reserves prompted Beijing to create the CIC in 2007. China traditionally invested those reserves in low-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds. But the sovereign fund has been continually called upon to assist domestic state-owned firms.
At its creation in 2007, CIC used one-third of its funds to recapitalize the Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank. Now, as shares in ICBC, BOC, and CCB have sunk 58%, 61% and 54%, respectively, on the Shanghai exchange this year, Beijing has been compelled to staunch the bleeding. The steep slide in Chinese stocks has eaten away at corporate profits, for which investment returns are a major source.
CIC’s latest move to buy up stakes in domestic banks signifies “a temporary reversal in the privatization” process undertaken by Beijing, but government officials were being “pragmatic” under “extraordinary” conditions, given the global financial crisis, said the analyst, who asked not to be named. The government has undertaken massive conversions of state-held shares to tradable shares in various state-owned enterprises this year.
After paying $5 billion for a 9.9% stake in Morgan Stanley last year, CIC is reportedly in talks with the Wall Street firm to increase its stake.
In Hong Kong trading on Friday, ICBC shares closed up 65 Hong Kong cents (8 cents), or 16.17%, to 4.67 Hong Kong dollars (60 cents). BOC shares closed up 48 Hong Kong cents (6 cents), or 16.67%, to 3.36 Hong Kong dollars (43 cents). CCB shares closed up 74 Hong Kong cents (10 cents), or 15.74%, to 5.44 Hong Kong dollars (70 cents).
After taking headline-grabbing, billion-dollar equity stakes in the Blackstone Group and Morgan Stanley (nyse: MS - news - people ) last year, China’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund will buy shares in three of the country’s biggest state-owned banks, whose shares have more than halved in value this year. The fund will take stakes in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (other-otc: ICBAF - news - people ), Bank of China (other-otc: BACHF - news - people ) and China Construction Bank (other-otc: CICHF - news - people ) to calm panicked investors amid a global credit crisis, the state news agency Xinhua said Thursday. The move sent all three banks’ shares soaring more than 15% in Hong Kong on Friday.
This inward recapitalization “may not be part of the long-term strategic direction of CIC,” said a Shanghai-based analyst for a foreign investment bank. The move is also a short-term setback, even if a necessary one, for the government’s overall program of partial privatization of state-run companies, some observed.
The desire to reap greater rewards on the country’s trillion-dollar reserves prompted Beijing to create the CIC in 2007. China traditionally invested those reserves in low-yielding U.S. Treasury bonds. But the sovereign fund has been continually called upon to assist domestic state-owned firms.
At its creation in 2007, CIC used one-third of its funds to recapitalize the Agricultural Bank of China and China Development Bank. Now, as shares in ICBC, BOC, and CCB have sunk 58%, 61% and 54%, respectively, on the Shanghai exchange this year, Beijing has been compelled to staunch the bleeding. The steep slide in Chinese stocks has eaten away at corporate profits, for which investment returns are a major source.
CIC’s latest move to buy up stakes in domestic banks signifies “a temporary reversal in the privatization” process undertaken by Beijing, but government officials were being “pragmatic” under “extraordinary” conditions, given the global financial crisis, said the analyst, who asked not to be named. The government has undertaken massive conversions of state-held shares to tradable shares in various state-owned enterprises this year.
After paying $5 billion for a 9.9% stake in Morgan Stanley last year, CIC is reportedly in talks with the Wall Street firm to increase its stake.
In Hong Kong trading on Friday, ICBC shares closed up 65 Hong Kong cents (8 cents), or 16.17%, to 4.67 Hong Kong dollars (60 cents). BOC shares closed up 48 Hong Kong cents (6 cents), or 16.67%, to 3.36 Hong Kong dollars (43 cents). CCB shares closed up 74 Hong Kong cents (10 cents), or 15.74%, to 5.44 Hong Kong dollars (70 cents).
The Wall Street Journal: China Seeks to Lift Market by Raising Stake in Major Banks
SHANGHAI -- China's government announced plans to buy shares and take other measures to support the nation's plummeting stock market, a program that analysts said will surely boost investor sentiment -- but could add to longer-term risks.
As the world's major central banks banded together Thursday to fight a meltdown in global financial markets, Beijing said an arm of China's $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund will increase its shareholding in the nation's three largest banks with direct purchases on the market, while other government entities will be encouraged to load up on stock in listed companies that they control. In addition, authorities canceled a 0.1% tax on stock purchases, although sellers will still have to pay the tax.
Already the principal shareholder in China's three largest banks, Central Huijin Investment Co. will buy additional stock in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp., according to the state-run Xinhua news agency. The report said the buying began Thursday and aims to "shore up their share prices amid stock market slumps." No specifics on the planned purchases were announced.
"It is absolutely a market-rescuing message from the government," said Mao Nan, a strategist at Orient Securities Co. in Shanghai.
The announcement came as central banks around the globe flooded money markets with U.S. dollars, and on a day when other Asian governments were taking more technical and less blunt steps than China to support their financial systems -- for example, by adding local currency to their own money markets. Using similar monetary policy options in China, like this week's first lowering of interest rates in six years, would have limited impact on China's economy given the immaturity of its financial system.
By buying shares directly, Beijing will employ its most powerful tool to halt a painful market decline that has erased 64% this year from the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. The move, which wasn't coordinated with any outside authorities, also marks what may be a last chance to resuscitate the confidence of tens of millions of investors -- and appears to reflect a recognition in Beijing that its strategy to carefully phase in market-oriented policies hasn't convinced the public that stocks are a suitable place to put their $4 trillion in savings. The Shanghai Composite Index fell about 70% from last year's all-time high of 6124.04 to Thursday's low point of about 1816.
The purchases will deepen China's government ownership of a market that by some estimates is still about two-thirds controlled by state interests. That state of affairs threatens to sustain a decade-long fear that big shareholders will ultimately dump their stock -- a factor that many blame for this year's collapse and a previous grind earlier in the decade that erased more than 40% of market value.
It is unclear whether the stock-market intervention suggests Beijing will suspend its hunt for investments overseas -- up to now the major focus of the country's sovereign wealth fund. Chinese entities haven't entered the fray to shore up Wall Street firms in recent weeks. Still, even as the market bailout was being announced on Thursday, Bank of China said it would pay 2.3 billion yuan ($336 million) to buy about 20% of Cie. Financière Edmond de Rothschild, the French arm of the LCF Rothschild Group headed by Baron Benjamin de Rothschild.
The U.S. government's recent massive bailouts of American financial companies have provided ammunition to those calling for official stock buying by Beijing. Chinese policy makers had debated for months whether to pull the trigger and buy shares, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday. For much of the year, proponents of freer markets appeared to be winning with their argument that authorities shouldn't target price levels. They advocated instead building a credible trading system of fair rules, robust infrastructure and trustworthy participants that would make the stock market a base on which to build a fuller financial system.
But as the market rout continued, Beijing's credibility was on the line. Investors, who had opened more than 100 million trading accounts, said the market's biggest investor -- the government -- had a duty to defend it.
As part of the new effort to boost stocks, the central-government entity that indirectly controls a vast array of major state-owned companies indicated Thursday that repurchases of shares in listed companies would soon begin. Among the companies in its stable is oil giant PetroChina Ltd., the largest stock on the Shanghai exchange.
Gao Lingzhi, an analyst at Great Wall Securities in Shenzhen, said if the market doesn't sustain the now widely expected rally when government entities start buying stocks, investors will clamor for more support.
As the world's major central banks banded together Thursday to fight a meltdown in global financial markets, Beijing said an arm of China's $200 billion sovereign-wealth fund will increase its shareholding in the nation's three largest banks with direct purchases on the market, while other government entities will be encouraged to load up on stock in listed companies that they control. In addition, authorities canceled a 0.1% tax on stock purchases, although sellers will still have to pay the tax.
Already the principal shareholder in China's three largest banks, Central Huijin Investment Co. will buy additional stock in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp., according to the state-run Xinhua news agency. The report said the buying began Thursday and aims to "shore up their share prices amid stock market slumps." No specifics on the planned purchases were announced.
"It is absolutely a market-rescuing message from the government," said Mao Nan, a strategist at Orient Securities Co. in Shanghai.
The announcement came as central banks around the globe flooded money markets with U.S. dollars, and on a day when other Asian governments were taking more technical and less blunt steps than China to support their financial systems -- for example, by adding local currency to their own money markets. Using similar monetary policy options in China, like this week's first lowering of interest rates in six years, would have limited impact on China's economy given the immaturity of its financial system.
By buying shares directly, Beijing will employ its most powerful tool to halt a painful market decline that has erased 64% this year from the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. The move, which wasn't coordinated with any outside authorities, also marks what may be a last chance to resuscitate the confidence of tens of millions of investors -- and appears to reflect a recognition in Beijing that its strategy to carefully phase in market-oriented policies hasn't convinced the public that stocks are a suitable place to put their $4 trillion in savings. The Shanghai Composite Index fell about 70% from last year's all-time high of 6124.04 to Thursday's low point of about 1816.
The purchases will deepen China's government ownership of a market that by some estimates is still about two-thirds controlled by state interests. That state of affairs threatens to sustain a decade-long fear that big shareholders will ultimately dump their stock -- a factor that many blame for this year's collapse and a previous grind earlier in the decade that erased more than 40% of market value.
It is unclear whether the stock-market intervention suggests Beijing will suspend its hunt for investments overseas -- up to now the major focus of the country's sovereign wealth fund. Chinese entities haven't entered the fray to shore up Wall Street firms in recent weeks. Still, even as the market bailout was being announced on Thursday, Bank of China said it would pay 2.3 billion yuan ($336 million) to buy about 20% of Cie. Financière Edmond de Rothschild, the French arm of the LCF Rothschild Group headed by Baron Benjamin de Rothschild.
The U.S. government's recent massive bailouts of American financial companies have provided ammunition to those calling for official stock buying by Beijing. Chinese policy makers had debated for months whether to pull the trigger and buy shares, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday. For much of the year, proponents of freer markets appeared to be winning with their argument that authorities shouldn't target price levels. They advocated instead building a credible trading system of fair rules, robust infrastructure and trustworthy participants that would make the stock market a base on which to build a fuller financial system.
But as the market rout continued, Beijing's credibility was on the line. Investors, who had opened more than 100 million trading accounts, said the market's biggest investor -- the government -- had a duty to defend it.
As part of the new effort to boost stocks, the central-government entity that indirectly controls a vast array of major state-owned companies indicated Thursday that repurchases of shares in listed companies would soon begin. Among the companies in its stable is oil giant PetroChina Ltd., the largest stock on the Shanghai exchange.
Gao Lingzhi, an analyst at Great Wall Securities in Shenzhen, said if the market doesn't sustain the now widely expected rally when government entities start buying stocks, investors will clamor for more support.
Monday, August 4, 2008
The Wall Street Journal: Arbitragers Sing a Sad Song
Bettors on Mergers Having a Tough Year, And It's Not Looking Up
By HEIDI N. MOORE
August 5, 2008
Last Wednesday, on a steamy summer evening in New York City, about 40 merger arbitragers gathered together for a well-earned drink.
The arbs, who bet on the stock prices of companies involved in mergers, had been pummeled by the year's failed takeovers, such as the scuttled $6.4 billion buyout of Alliance Data Systems and the $6.1 billion buyout of Penn National Gaming. Several other deals closed only after months of falling prices: Sirius Satellite Radio-XM Satellite Radio Holdings and the $18 billion buyout of Clear Channel Communications.
Gathered together on the rooftop bar at 230 Fifth Ave. with colleagues from 15 or so other hedge funds, one arb looked down to the street and sighed, "It's a good thing the Clear Channel buyout closed today. Now nobody has to jump."
Gallows humor, sure, but it contains a kernel of truth. Several hedge funds have reduced or closed their merger-arb desks this year; the previously cushy business of betting on mergers and acquisitions, once touted as nearly riskless, has been pitted with treacherous falls this year.
There could be more to come. There are some old deals kicking around, such as Hexion Specialty Chemical's $6.5 billion takeover of Huntsman; both sides are in litigation. Then there a batch of new deals cropping up with plenty of controversy and fears of rival bidders. Some arbs are betting a new bidder will disrupt Cleveland-Cliff's $10 billion offer for metallurgical coal miner Alpha Natural Resources; top shareholder Phil Falcone of Harbinger Capital Management already has expressed his disapproval of the deal price. Republic Services's $6.24 billion bid for Allied Waste Industries is challenged by rival Waste Management, which wants to buy Republic. And while rival bidders haven't emerged, Carl Icahn's official rejection Monday of Bristol-Myers Squibb's $4.5 billion offer for the rest of ImClone could spur other pharmaceutical companies to jump into the fray.
All of which makes for another reason that none of those arbs leapt to the street below. The steep drops, everyone knows, will come on their own.ImClone's Worth To Bristol-Myers
Is ImClone really worth $10 less a share than it commanded in 2001?
Seven years ago, Bristol-Myers Squibb paid $70 a share for its stake in ImClone. Last week, Bristol-Myers offered to buy the remaining 73% of ImClone for $60 a share.
Bristol-Myers has always seemed to cast a skeptical eye on ImClone. In 2001, when the New York drug maker agreed to buy 14.4 million ImClone shares at $70 each, it expressly decided not to buy a majority stake -- an idea ImClone pushed but that Bristol-Myers's board rejected.
Analyst estimates on ImClone's valuation are all over the map, but they agree on one thing: Bristol-Myers should raise its offer. Analyst Howard Liang at Leerink Swann put a $67-a-share price on ImClone. Michael G. King at Rodman & Renshaw's sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests $71 a share. Katherine Kim at Banc of America Securities: $62. Mr. Icahn says the offer undervalues ImClone.
Mr. King also noted that the bid's 29% premium looks paltry when compared with the roughly 48% premium in comparable deals for oncology companies. That would indicate a value for ImClone of $65 to $70 a share. Other acquisitions of mid-cap pharmaceutical companies were done at an average premium of 45%.
Bristol-Myers, of course, is in something of a bind. Naturally, it wants to acquire ImClone cheaply. But if it refuses to raise the offer, the company may as well admit it overpaid for those ImClone shares seven years ago.
By HEIDI N. MOORE
August 5, 2008
Last Wednesday, on a steamy summer evening in New York City, about 40 merger arbitragers gathered together for a well-earned drink.
The arbs, who bet on the stock prices of companies involved in mergers, had been pummeled by the year's failed takeovers, such as the scuttled $6.4 billion buyout of Alliance Data Systems and the $6.1 billion buyout of Penn National Gaming. Several other deals closed only after months of falling prices: Sirius Satellite Radio-XM Satellite Radio Holdings and the $18 billion buyout of Clear Channel Communications.
Gathered together on the rooftop bar at 230 Fifth Ave. with colleagues from 15 or so other hedge funds, one arb looked down to the street and sighed, "It's a good thing the Clear Channel buyout closed today. Now nobody has to jump."
Gallows humor, sure, but it contains a kernel of truth. Several hedge funds have reduced or closed their merger-arb desks this year; the previously cushy business of betting on mergers and acquisitions, once touted as nearly riskless, has been pitted with treacherous falls this year.
There could be more to come. There are some old deals kicking around, such as Hexion Specialty Chemical's $6.5 billion takeover of Huntsman; both sides are in litigation. Then there a batch of new deals cropping up with plenty of controversy and fears of rival bidders. Some arbs are betting a new bidder will disrupt Cleveland-Cliff's $10 billion offer for metallurgical coal miner Alpha Natural Resources; top shareholder Phil Falcone of Harbinger Capital Management already has expressed his disapproval of the deal price. Republic Services's $6.24 billion bid for Allied Waste Industries is challenged by rival Waste Management, which wants to buy Republic. And while rival bidders haven't emerged, Carl Icahn's official rejection Monday of Bristol-Myers Squibb's $4.5 billion offer for the rest of ImClone could spur other pharmaceutical companies to jump into the fray.
All of which makes for another reason that none of those arbs leapt to the street below. The steep drops, everyone knows, will come on their own.ImClone's Worth To Bristol-Myers
Is ImClone really worth $10 less a share than it commanded in 2001?
Seven years ago, Bristol-Myers Squibb paid $70 a share for its stake in ImClone. Last week, Bristol-Myers offered to buy the remaining 73% of ImClone for $60 a share.
Bristol-Myers has always seemed to cast a skeptical eye on ImClone. In 2001, when the New York drug maker agreed to buy 14.4 million ImClone shares at $70 each, it expressly decided not to buy a majority stake -- an idea ImClone pushed but that Bristol-Myers's board rejected.
Analyst estimates on ImClone's valuation are all over the map, but they agree on one thing: Bristol-Myers should raise its offer. Analyst Howard Liang at Leerink Swann put a $67-a-share price on ImClone. Michael G. King at Rodman & Renshaw's sum-of-the-parts analysis suggests $71 a share. Katherine Kim at Banc of America Securities: $62. Mr. Icahn says the offer undervalues ImClone.
Mr. King also noted that the bid's 29% premium looks paltry when compared with the roughly 48% premium in comparable deals for oncology companies. That would indicate a value for ImClone of $65 to $70 a share. Other acquisitions of mid-cap pharmaceutical companies were done at an average premium of 45%.
Bristol-Myers, of course, is in something of a bind. Naturally, it wants to acquire ImClone cheaply. But if it refuses to raise the offer, the company may as well admit it overpaid for those ImClone shares seven years ago.
Monday, December 3, 2007
美国正在故伎重演地搞中国-象二十年前F-'k日本一样
近日盛传人民币对美元将继续大幅度升值，使人对中国经济前景格外担忧，这可能
意味着中国将重蹈日本20年前之复辄而落入美国圈套
约二十年前，日本经济携家电倚汽车一路腾飞，震惊了世界，其GDP迅速增长，已达
美国GDP的百分之八十，一跃成为世界第二经济大国，并直接挑战美国的世界老大地
位。日本经济腾飞更从根本上侵蚀美国经济，当时美国的计算机互联网等高科技还
尚未成大气候，占美国国民经济主干的钢铁电器汽车工业大幅度衰退，失业率上升，
政治经济危机重重。
面临如此严峻的形势，美国政府和华尔街携手，打了一场漂亮的经济围剿战，兵不
血刃，在很短的时间内把日本彻底打垮。当尘埃落定，日本的NIKKEI指数从四万多点
重跌到一万点，国民经济总值跌回仅相当于美国三分之一。坏债剧增，银行倒闭，
DEFLATION，失业率大幅度上升，并开始了长达十几年的经济衰退。。。。。
美国是怎么做的呢？
当时的日本经济和现在的中国有很多相似之处，对美有巨大的贸易顺差，出口实力
强大，经济增长迅速。先是美国政府以解决美日贸易逆差为名与日本政府协商日元
升值，这就是后来被认为是日本代价最昂贵的协议-“广场协议”的
由来。
当年的日本政府对美国言听计从(现在仍是)，绝不怀疑美藏有奸诈，1985年9月日本
政府公布了“广岛协议”，主要内容是增加了汇率的灵活性。日元对美元和欧洲货
币开始走强。
在不到两年的时间里，日元兑美元汇率从240：1升至120：1。随后，日本房地产和
股票市场也在银行的推波助澜下产生了巨大的泡沫，日本经济呈现出了虚假的繁荣，
股市直冲四万点。这时华尔街觉得时机已到，便倾巢而出，动用巨额资金，大肆卖
空日本股市，NIKKI一路狂跌致一万点，日本金融界吐血，股民跳楼，经济自此一蹶
不振。
直到此时，日本方知被他们崇尚信任的老大哥漂亮地玩了一把，其惨痛与震惊可与
广岛的原子弹相比，新仇旧恨。。。这之后日本广岛长崎的原子弹纪念馆的参观人
数激增，反美情绪再次暴涨。
日元升值的负面后果常达十几年，影响波及了整个亚洲经济，并慢性导致九七年的
亚洲金融风暴
历史总是在重演，历史正在重演，现在美国正在与华尔街合伙对中国玩当年搞垮日
本经济的这套把戏。
与日本相比，美国有着更多的动机，更强的理由害怕中国经济堀起。毕竟自二战后，日
本一直温顺地甘当美国小妾，且按联合国协议，日本无法扩充军事。尽管如此，当影
响到美国利益时，美国从来出手无情。而对中国，从意识形态，到国际政治势力的重
新分配，到中国因国力增强随之而来的军事实力对美国的威胁等等诸多的因素。。。
中国的经济崛起对美国有着太大太多的危险。
而搞垮中国经济，从美国国家利益与华尔街唯利是图的本质来看，两者目的空前一
致是不言而喻的。
在中国经济腾飞，股市高涨的过程中，美国资本家痛失了不少赚钱良机。当年A股上
海指数涨当1000点时，中国开放外国对中国A股投资，华尔街一路买进，但到3000点
时认为到顶，就大多都撤了，没成想中国股市不按理出牌，在广大股民的热情支持
与推动下继续狂飙到6000多点，使得华尔街的专业作手们捶胸顿足，这种心理使得
他们更加渴望看到中国股市崩盘。他们甚至希望中国股市继续泡沫，继续毫无道理
的狂涨。号称投资大师的罗杰斯说：“我看好中国股市100年牛市”
美国11月24日在纽约上市一只叫FXP的新股票，正式打响了作垮中国股市和经济的第
一枪。它的作用仅为专门买空中国股市，原理是新华指数降一点它涨两点。
华尔街在等待，他们在等中国股民满仓，他们在等美国政府继续向中国施加压力，
升值人民币，他们在等待2009年北京奥运会后的中国经济增长真空。。。他们手持
利剑，虎视眈眈迫不及待地等待着中国经济的任何一个空门！
美国政府也在磨刀，尽管享受惯了中国低成本的进口产品，他们已经无法坐视中国
加工业一步步地侵袭美国中低产阶级的生存利益，归根结底美国的高级资本家阶层
的盈利还是要靠中低产阶级的消费达到的。含铅的中国玩具在美国卖了多年了，今
年被拿出来当靶子打并不是偶然的。。。。。
有了日本的前车之鉴，中国政府在此紧要关头应该何去何从？
被骗一次是骗子的错，知道会被骗还要上钩，那只能是个不可原谅的傻瓜！！！
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me
意味着中国将重蹈日本20年前之复辄而落入美国圈套
约二十年前，日本经济携家电倚汽车一路腾飞，震惊了世界，其GDP迅速增长，已达
美国GDP的百分之八十，一跃成为世界第二经济大国，并直接挑战美国的世界老大地
位。日本经济腾飞更从根本上侵蚀美国经济，当时美国的计算机互联网等高科技还
尚未成大气候，占美国国民经济主干的钢铁电器汽车工业大幅度衰退，失业率上升，
政治经济危机重重。
面临如此严峻的形势，美国政府和华尔街携手，打了一场漂亮的经济围剿战，兵不
血刃，在很短的时间内把日本彻底打垮。当尘埃落定，日本的NIKKEI指数从四万多点
重跌到一万点，国民经济总值跌回仅相当于美国三分之一。坏债剧增，银行倒闭，
DEFLATION，失业率大幅度上升，并开始了长达十几年的经济衰退。。。。。
美国是怎么做的呢？
当时的日本经济和现在的中国有很多相似之处，对美有巨大的贸易顺差，出口实力
强大，经济增长迅速。先是美国政府以解决美日贸易逆差为名与日本政府协商日元
升值，这就是后来被认为是日本代价最昂贵的协议-“广场协议”的
由来。
当年的日本政府对美国言听计从(现在仍是)，绝不怀疑美藏有奸诈，1985年9月日本
政府公布了“广岛协议”，主要内容是增加了汇率的灵活性。日元对美元和欧洲货
币开始走强。
在不到两年的时间里，日元兑美元汇率从240：1升至120：1。随后，日本房地产和
股票市场也在银行的推波助澜下产生了巨大的泡沫，日本经济呈现出了虚假的繁荣，
股市直冲四万点。这时华尔街觉得时机已到，便倾巢而出，动用巨额资金，大肆卖
空日本股市，NIKKI一路狂跌致一万点，日本金融界吐血，股民跳楼，经济自此一蹶
不振。
直到此时，日本方知被他们崇尚信任的老大哥漂亮地玩了一把，其惨痛与震惊可与
广岛的原子弹相比，新仇旧恨。。。这之后日本广岛长崎的原子弹纪念馆的参观人
数激增，反美情绪再次暴涨。
日元升值的负面后果常达十几年，影响波及了整个亚洲经济，并慢性导致九七年的
亚洲金融风暴
历史总是在重演，历史正在重演，现在美国正在与华尔街合伙对中国玩当年搞垮日
本经济的这套把戏。
与日本相比，美国有着更多的动机，更强的理由害怕中国经济堀起。毕竟自二战后，日
本一直温顺地甘当美国小妾，且按联合国协议，日本无法扩充军事。尽管如此，当影
响到美国利益时，美国从来出手无情。而对中国，从意识形态，到国际政治势力的重
新分配，到中国因国力增强随之而来的军事实力对美国的威胁等等诸多的因素。。。
中国的经济崛起对美国有着太大太多的危险。
而搞垮中国经济，从美国国家利益与华尔街唯利是图的本质来看，两者目的空前一
致是不言而喻的。
在中国经济腾飞，股市高涨的过程中，美国资本家痛失了不少赚钱良机。当年A股上
海指数涨当1000点时，中国开放外国对中国A股投资，华尔街一路买进，但到3000点
时认为到顶，就大多都撤了，没成想中国股市不按理出牌，在广大股民的热情支持
与推动下继续狂飙到6000多点，使得华尔街的专业作手们捶胸顿足，这种心理使得
他们更加渴望看到中国股市崩盘。他们甚至希望中国股市继续泡沫，继续毫无道理
的狂涨。号称投资大师的罗杰斯说：“我看好中国股市100年牛市”
美国11月24日在纽约上市一只叫FXP的新股票，正式打响了作垮中国股市和经济的第
一枪。它的作用仅为专门买空中国股市，原理是新华指数降一点它涨两点。
华尔街在等待，他们在等中国股民满仓，他们在等美国政府继续向中国施加压力，
升值人民币，他们在等待2009年北京奥运会后的中国经济增长真空。。。他们手持
利剑，虎视眈眈迫不及待地等待着中国经济的任何一个空门！
美国政府也在磨刀，尽管享受惯了中国低成本的进口产品，他们已经无法坐视中国
加工业一步步地侵袭美国中低产阶级的生存利益，归根结底美国的高级资本家阶层
的盈利还是要靠中低产阶级的消费达到的。含铅的中国玩具在美国卖了多年了，今
年被拿出来当靶子打并不是偶然的。。。。。
有了日本的前车之鉴，中国政府在此紧要关头应该何去何从？
被骗一次是骗子的错，知道会被骗还要上钩，那只能是个不可原谅的傻瓜！！！
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me
Friday, November 9, 2007
China Bans Exports of Drug-Tainted Toy
China Suspends Exports of Toys Tainted With Precursor of 'Date Rape' Drug
BEIJING (AP) -- China's government has suspended exports of toys covered with a toxic chemical that have been subject to recalls from Australia to the United States after sickening children, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Friday.
China's move came as seven more U.S. children were reported ailing after ingesting Chinese-made toy beads because of the toxic chemical coating, bringing the total of U.S. children sickened to nine, according to a spokeswoman for the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
The Chinese government's quality control administration issued the export ban, sealed the toys at the sites where they were produced and ordered an investigation, Xinhua said in a brief report.
Millions of units of the popular toys, which are sold as Aqua Dots in the United States and as Bindeez in Australia, were recalled in those countries as well as in Britain, Malaysia, Singapore and elsewhere this past week after children began falling sick from swallowing the toy's bead-like parts.
Tests showed they were coated with the industrial chemical 1,4-butanediol. When ingested the chemical metabolizes into the "date-rape" drug gamma hydroxy butyrate, and may cause breathing problems, loss of consciousness, seizures, drowsiness, coma and death. In addition to the nine in the U.S., three children in Australia have taken sick.
The new reports of the sickened U.S. children, six of whom were hospitalized, came from at least five states: Texas, Delaware, New Hampshire, Illinois and Utah, said CPSC spokeswoman Julie Vallese.
The agency recalled the Aqua Dots toy Wednesday after two children were hospitalized after eating the beads.
The U.S. recall covers 4.2 million of the Aqua Dots toys, which consist of colored beads that can be arranged into designs and then fused together when sprayed with water.
The agency received its first report of a sickened child Monday and ordered stores to pull the toy two days later, Vallese said.
For China, the recall is the latest in a slew of product quality scandals that has tarnished the image of the country as an exporter of reliable goods. The government has tried to shore up China's reputation by increasing inspections, selectively punishing companies and launching a publicity campaign to boost quality.
Few details were available about the latest export suspension and how a popular toy became coated with a toxic chemical. The toys' maker, Australia-based Moose Enterprises, has said the product was manufactured in China. But neither the company nor the Chinese government have identified the factory or factories where the toys were produced.
Reached by telephone Saturday, a duty officer at the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which issued the ban, said officials were not available to comment.
In its report, Xinhua said inspectors "sealed the bead toys at the producer" whose name was not released.
Companies worldwide have increasingly outsourced manufacturing, often choosing Chinese factories for their cost and quality. But heated competition among factories and the rising cost of labor, land and fuel have sometimes put pressure on profits, causing some producers to cut corners.
In the latest case, the Aqua Dots or Bindeez were supposed to have been coated with nontoxic 1,5-pentanediol, a chemical commonly used in computer printer ink. But that chemical generally sells for three or four times the price of the toxic compound found on the tainted toys, 1,4-butanediol.
BEIJING (AP) -- China's government has suspended exports of toys covered with a toxic chemical that have been subject to recalls from Australia to the United States after sickening children, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported Friday.
China's move came as seven more U.S. children were reported ailing after ingesting Chinese-made toy beads because of the toxic chemical coating, bringing the total of U.S. children sickened to nine, according to a spokeswoman for the Consumer Product Safety Commission.
The Chinese government's quality control administration issued the export ban, sealed the toys at the sites where they were produced and ordered an investigation, Xinhua said in a brief report.
Millions of units of the popular toys, which are sold as Aqua Dots in the United States and as Bindeez in Australia, were recalled in those countries as well as in Britain, Malaysia, Singapore and elsewhere this past week after children began falling sick from swallowing the toy's bead-like parts.
Tests showed they were coated with the industrial chemical 1,4-butanediol. When ingested the chemical metabolizes into the "date-rape" drug gamma hydroxy butyrate, and may cause breathing problems, loss of consciousness, seizures, drowsiness, coma and death. In addition to the nine in the U.S., three children in Australia have taken sick.
The new reports of the sickened U.S. children, six of whom were hospitalized, came from at least five states: Texas, Delaware, New Hampshire, Illinois and Utah, said CPSC spokeswoman Julie Vallese.
The agency recalled the Aqua Dots toy Wednesday after two children were hospitalized after eating the beads.
The U.S. recall covers 4.2 million of the Aqua Dots toys, which consist of colored beads that can be arranged into designs and then fused together when sprayed with water.
The agency received its first report of a sickened child Monday and ordered stores to pull the toy two days later, Vallese said.
For China, the recall is the latest in a slew of product quality scandals that has tarnished the image of the country as an exporter of reliable goods. The government has tried to shore up China's reputation by increasing inspections, selectively punishing companies and launching a publicity campaign to boost quality.
Few details were available about the latest export suspension and how a popular toy became coated with a toxic chemical. The toys' maker, Australia-based Moose Enterprises, has said the product was manufactured in China. But neither the company nor the Chinese government have identified the factory or factories where the toys were produced.
Reached by telephone Saturday, a duty officer at the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, which issued the ban, said officials were not available to comment.
In its report, Xinhua said inspectors "sealed the bead toys at the producer" whose name was not released.
Companies worldwide have increasingly outsourced manufacturing, often choosing Chinese factories for their cost and quality. But heated competition among factories and the rising cost of labor, land and fuel have sometimes put pressure on profits, causing some producers to cut corners.
In the latest case, the Aqua Dots or Bindeez were supposed to have been coated with nontoxic 1,5-pentanediol, a chemical commonly used in computer printer ink. But that chemical generally sells for three or four times the price of the toxic compound found on the tainted toys, 1,4-butanediol.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
China Threat Sends Dollar Ever Lower
LONDON - Fresh concerns that China could diversify its currency assets away from the greenback sent the euro to a new record against the dollar, and the pound through the psychologically significant $2.10 barrier on Wednesday.
The pound rose to $2.1051 in morning trading in London before settling down to $2.1010, while the euro hit $1.4703, before settling at $1.4674, above its $1.4554 value in late trading in New York the day before.
The trigger was remarks by Cheng Siwei, the vice chairman of China's National People's Congress that the country's forex regulator would shift its foreign exchange holdings and that China should consider moving its reserves to "stronger" currencies.
"The comments certainly spooked the market to say the least," said Peter Scullion, Vice President of the FX Currency Department of Nomura in London. He added that too much should not be read into the comments, given that Cheng was not a particularly senior official and as the Chinese government tried to retract the comments soon after they were made. "It's also not a secret that many central banks, particularly in the Middle East, have been diversifying away from dollars," remarked Scullion.
Scullion said uncertainty about the dollar would continue to drag it down, potentially sending the euro across the $1.50 threshold. "Realistically over the medium term between now and the end of the year there is no reason why markets wouldn’t continue to push the dollar lower," he remarked.
Concerns about the health of the U.S. economy has been the underlying driver of the greenback's fall over the past months. "While we may see some periods of dollar buying, most market participants expect the dollar to weaken further given the tremendous uncertainty about the US economy," Scullion said.
Last week both the euro and the pound gained against greenback, as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 4.5%, ahead of this week's meeting of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, in which both are expected to hold rates, thus broadening the rates differential even further. (See: " Rate Outlook Undercuts Dollar").
Worse than expected write downs at some of America's largest banks, including Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) and Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ), could mean that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates again, despite some recent positive data, including on jobs.
Scullion said that the gloomy outlook had sent the dollar lower even against the Japanese yen. The yen has remained weak thanks to the stunningly low interest rates, currently 0.75%, that have been maintained by the Japanese central bank. The dollar was trading at 113.16 yen in Tokyo late on Wednesday, from 114.66 yen the day before.
The weak dollar has been a mixed blessing for Europe: while the soaring price of oil and commodities may not be felt as deeply in the stronger European currencies, it has also hit sales. British Airways (nyse: BAIRY - news - people ) and the French energy company Total (nyse: TOT - news - people ) both reported third quarter results that were weighed down by the weak dollar.
The pound rose to $2.1051 in morning trading in London before settling down to $2.1010, while the euro hit $1.4703, before settling at $1.4674, above its $1.4554 value in late trading in New York the day before.
The trigger was remarks by Cheng Siwei, the vice chairman of China's National People's Congress that the country's forex regulator would shift its foreign exchange holdings and that China should consider moving its reserves to "stronger" currencies.
"The comments certainly spooked the market to say the least," said Peter Scullion, Vice President of the FX Currency Department of Nomura in London. He added that too much should not be read into the comments, given that Cheng was not a particularly senior official and as the Chinese government tried to retract the comments soon after they were made. "It's also not a secret that many central banks, particularly in the Middle East, have been diversifying away from dollars," remarked Scullion.
Scullion said uncertainty about the dollar would continue to drag it down, potentially sending the euro across the $1.50 threshold. "Realistically over the medium term between now and the end of the year there is no reason why markets wouldn’t continue to push the dollar lower," he remarked.
Concerns about the health of the U.S. economy has been the underlying driver of the greenback's fall over the past months. "While we may see some periods of dollar buying, most market participants expect the dollar to weaken further given the tremendous uncertainty about the US economy," Scullion said.
Last week both the euro and the pound gained against greenback, as the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 4.5%, ahead of this week's meeting of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, in which both are expected to hold rates, thus broadening the rates differential even further. (See: " Rate Outlook Undercuts Dollar").
Worse than expected write downs at some of America's largest banks, including Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) and Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ), could mean that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates again, despite some recent positive data, including on jobs.
Scullion said that the gloomy outlook had sent the dollar lower even against the Japanese yen. The yen has remained weak thanks to the stunningly low interest rates, currently 0.75%, that have been maintained by the Japanese central bank. The dollar was trading at 113.16 yen in Tokyo late on Wednesday, from 114.66 yen the day before.
The weak dollar has been a mixed blessing for Europe: while the soaring price of oil and commodities may not be felt as deeply in the stronger European currencies, it has also hit sales. British Airways (nyse: BAIRY - news - people ) and the French energy company Total (nyse: TOT - news - people ) both reported third quarter results that were weighed down by the weak dollar.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
美国降息 竟是为“抢”别国的钱？
继９月份降息0.5个百分点后,美联储10月31日决定再次降息。此次降息，一方面固然与美国次贷危机继续蔓延有关系；另一方面从全球资本市场角度考虑，在全球流动性泛滥的背景下，美联储不断降息，有进一步放大全球资产价格泡沫的风险。可以说，美联储此次降息，缓解国内次贷危机是“虚”，通过美元贬值吹大资本输入国资产价格泡沫，为其投机性资金在海外攫取高额投机利润创条件是“实”。之所以如此判断，是基于以下几方面考虑。
首先，美元在国际货币体系中所处的特殊地位，决定了美联储的货币政策行为牵动全球金融市场神经。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，美国凭借其综合实力使美元在国际货币体系中居主导地位。欧元出现以后，虽然在某种程度上挑战了美元的国际地位，但并未从根本上削弱美元在全球货币体系中所处的主导地位。由于美元在实体经济和虚拟经济运行中都处于主导地位，因此，美联储货币政策对全球实体经济和虚拟经济都会产生重要影响。
其次，美元与黄金脱钩以及美元的主导地位，决定了美联储可以通过货币政策调整对全球施加影响，为美国谋求国家利益的最大化。具体言之，在美国国内出现巨额财政赤字时，美国政府可以通过发行美元，以美元贬值的方式向全球输出通货膨胀和收取铸币税；与此同时，其国内投机资金也可以通过资本输出的方式进入那些本币升值的国家，以获取本币升值预期下的资产增值及汇兑收益双重利益。而当其国内资本大鳄在本币升值国赚得盆满钵满时，美元再通过大幅升值的方式，锁定和实现利润。当然从全球角度分析，美元一松一紧，并没有创造任何价值，其完成的只是财富在不同国度再分配而已。
再次，美联储近期再度降息，缓解国内次贷危机只是“虚”的借口。表面上看，美联储此次降息是为了缓解次贷危机的危害，实质上却在很大程度进一步吹大了国际金融市场资产价格泡沫，为美国国内投机资本在国际金融市场“浑水摸鱼”创造了条件。因此，从美元贬值真实内含来看，美元贬值只是美元货币国际流动所导致的供求因素影响所致，与美国综合国力衰退无关。而美国次贷危机对美国本身的经济影响有限，次贷危机的实际分担者是全球金融投资者。就此而言，美联储借次贷危机降息是“醉翁之意不在酒”。
另外，美联储再次降息，将进一步吹大国际金融市场资产价格泡沫。在美元贬值旗号下，美国国内投机资本纷纷进入发展中国家寻求新的投资机会，投机性外资对新兴市场的介入一方面提升了外资流入国本币的需求，使得外资流入国本币出现升值，另一方面外资利用流入国本币升值所形成的货币幻觉，对资源、资产等不动产进行大幅炒作，以获取巨额投机收益。从亚洲主要国家资本市场近年变化来看，2005年以后，随着美元的大幅贬值，亚洲各国房地产市场、证券市场都出现了大幅上涨。资产价格快速上涨已成为各国央行急待解决的难题。
从亚洲地区证券市场近来的表现看，中国内地与中国香港市场无疑成为美国次贷危机爆发后国际热钱热衷的宝地。就中国内地A股市场而言，目前A股市场已呈现明显的资金推动型特征。从资金来源上分析，人民币汇率、贸易顺差、A股走势有明显的正相关性。贸易顺差对人民币汇率的刚性特征，在很大程度上反映了外资正热切地进入中国资本市场。
而在我国国内CPI高企、人民币走入“对外升值对内贬值”怪圈、央行为应对通胀采取小幅加息之际，美联储此次再度降息，无疑加大了我国国内经济调控的难度。一方面，美元降息在很大程度上扰乱了国际金融秩序，进一步吹大了国际金融市场泡沫。另一方面，就中长期而言，美联储宽松的货币政策这么走下去，是否会进一步吹大资本流入国资产价格泡沫，从而为美国的投机资金回归创造条件，更值得关注。
首先，美元在国际货币体系中所处的特殊地位，决定了美联储的货币政策行为牵动全球金融市场神经。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，美国凭借其综合实力使美元在国际货币体系中居主导地位。欧元出现以后，虽然在某种程度上挑战了美元的国际地位，但并未从根本上削弱美元在全球货币体系中所处的主导地位。由于美元在实体经济和虚拟经济运行中都处于主导地位，因此，美联储货币政策对全球实体经济和虚拟经济都会产生重要影响。
其次，美元与黄金脱钩以及美元的主导地位，决定了美联储可以通过货币政策调整对全球施加影响，为美国谋求国家利益的最大化。具体言之，在美国国内出现巨额财政赤字时，美国政府可以通过发行美元，以美元贬值的方式向全球输出通货膨胀和收取铸币税；与此同时，其国内投机资金也可以通过资本输出的方式进入那些本币升值的国家，以获取本币升值预期下的资产增值及汇兑收益双重利益。而当其国内资本大鳄在本币升值国赚得盆满钵满时，美元再通过大幅升值的方式，锁定和实现利润。当然从全球角度分析，美元一松一紧，并没有创造任何价值，其完成的只是财富在不同国度再分配而已。
再次，美联储近期再度降息，缓解国内次贷危机只是“虚”的借口。表面上看，美联储此次降息是为了缓解次贷危机的危害，实质上却在很大程度进一步吹大了国际金融市场资产价格泡沫，为美国国内投机资本在国际金融市场“浑水摸鱼”创造了条件。因此，从美元贬值真实内含来看，美元贬值只是美元货币国际流动所导致的供求因素影响所致，与美国综合国力衰退无关。而美国次贷危机对美国本身的经济影响有限，次贷危机的实际分担者是全球金融投资者。就此而言，美联储借次贷危机降息是“醉翁之意不在酒”。
另外，美联储再次降息，将进一步吹大国际金融市场资产价格泡沫。在美元贬值旗号下，美国国内投机资本纷纷进入发展中国家寻求新的投资机会，投机性外资对新兴市场的介入一方面提升了外资流入国本币的需求，使得外资流入国本币出现升值，另一方面外资利用流入国本币升值所形成的货币幻觉，对资源、资产等不动产进行大幅炒作，以获取巨额投机收益。从亚洲主要国家资本市场近年变化来看，2005年以后，随着美元的大幅贬值，亚洲各国房地产市场、证券市场都出现了大幅上涨。资产价格快速上涨已成为各国央行急待解决的难题。
从亚洲地区证券市场近来的表现看，中国内地与中国香港市场无疑成为美国次贷危机爆发后国际热钱热衷的宝地。就中国内地A股市场而言，目前A股市场已呈现明显的资金推动型特征。从资金来源上分析，人民币汇率、贸易顺差、A股走势有明显的正相关性。贸易顺差对人民币汇率的刚性特征，在很大程度上反映了外资正热切地进入中国资本市场。
而在我国国内CPI高企、人民币走入“对外升值对内贬值”怪圈、央行为应对通胀采取小幅加息之际，美联储此次再度降息，无疑加大了我国国内经济调控的难度。一方面，美元降息在很大程度上扰乱了国际金融秩序，进一步吹大了国际金融市场泡沫。另一方面，就中长期而言，美联储宽松的货币政策这么走下去，是否会进一步吹大资本流入国资产价格泡沫，从而为美国的投机资金回归创造条件，更值得关注。
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
吐纳当代国际高油价的美国利益和中国选择
1，中国油荒祸由美国，主要因缘中国成品油的行政性定价体制。它已经成为跨国金融资本向中国出口国际商品通胀的战略通道和重要的突破口，构成了对中华民族生存方式的深刻挑战。
近日国际原油价格出现了超过９０美元的过快跳长，引转了包括中国在内的全球所有重大利益集团的对弈，它使全球每年４０亿吨左右的原油产量成为新的造富平台；它使全球每年用于石油出口贸易的近２０亿吨原油价值大幅上涨超过４０００多亿美元；最重要的是它使以美元定价的数万亿的国际石油期货交易牛气旺盛，再造了国际资本新的繁荣点。值此美国调整次贷危机之时，成为修补美元纸币体系高速运转的故障部件的强大支持力量。
与此同时，单薄而又扭曲的中国成品油定价体制饱受煎熬，中国部分地区近日甚至出现油荒。中国油荒的实质一方面祸起美元，祸由美国；另一方面也反映了拥有巨大的进出口贸易总量，又实行不完全市场化运转的国家大宗商品管理、特别是油气价格管理的重大制度缺陷。这种缺陷正使得中国利益面临人为刀俎，我为鱼肉的惨局。构成这个鲜美鱼肉的至少有两道大餐，同时它们也是中国与全球交往的两条最重要的战略价格通道，其一是１９９４年以来中国实行的强制性结售汇和外汇占款制度，它使人民币采取了紧盯美元为主的一篮子货币政策。这种类似固定汇率的汇率制度，在人民币不断升值的预期内，中国资产的预期收益已经转化为当期价格和现价体系，热钱入华导致处于转型中的当代中国出现了流动性过剩，由此也迫使当代中国发展需要同时应对通胀和升值两大世界性难题；其二就是中国的大宗商品，特别是成品油的行政性定价体制，它使世界上的第二大成品油消费国的成品油与国家行政主管部门的行政调控政策挂钩，也即行政部门决定中国最大宗商品的价格，从而使中国的成品油价格具有行政与市场双重属性。而且成品油的行政价格调控还往往成为主导，由此它使跨国资本可以肆无忌惮地拉高国际原油期货价格，并借助中国对国际原油的巨大需求向中国的经济运行体系输出商品通胀，使得国际资源性商品的价格的预期收益转化为中国的生产成本、消费成本；由此高油价也导致了中国能源企业难于有效的开展全面改革并成功地向国际上输出生产上涨的生产成本，迫使中国的发展需要应对资源性商品全面通胀和加快经济转型的民族生存难题。
因此，无论是人民币的升值，还是成品油的行政性定价问题，都反映了目前以行政力量定价中国与全球交往的价格通道的运转的后果，它不但有增长的好处，也是吃大亏的传导载体。目前中国这种成品油与国际成品油的价格倒挂，成品油价格由行政机制主导的特殊能源价格政策是国际上的一种典型的人治体制，也必然是过渡性的、临时的。同时也是需要行政部门展现英雄精神，甚至超人意志的体制，它既透支国家的行政资源，也使最需要市场化的能源商品人为的与活跃的市场价格变动脱节，因此往往弊大于利。
油价下调，人民未必享受好处；油价上涨，企业又需要国家补贴。这种人造的对国际投机力量炒高油价的包容，变相地支持了美元的贬值，使美国顺利的索引中国、日本、印度等的亚洲美元储蓄运转，而且还可以再造国际大宗商品价格的繁荣以弥补国际次贷的损失，以高油价的综效反应阻断次贷在国际金融体系的传导，恢复美元纸币体系的活力，并使美国成为高油价的最大赢家。
因此，油气价格的跳长得到了美国经济领袖的联合力挺。美联储前主席格林斯潘１０月３０日表示：油价上升损害全球经济的增长，唯油价即使升到１００美元也不是坏事。美国财长保尔森１０月２６日则表示：油气不断上涨对美国经济并不产生积极作用，但高油价对美国经济的负面影响并不大。美国能源部长博得曼近日更表示：原油价格大幅上扬是由供求不平衡造成的，而非投机炒作所致。美国经济领袖对高油价的瞻评说明：油市繁荣的目的就是要造就国际大宗商品上涨的繁荣。它的繁荣不但要避免石油和大宗商品期货市场形成继次贷危机之后又一个体系散架的米牌反应，从而促生一次以美国为主的全面的金融危机，而且其繁荣还将修复次贷问题造成的国际金融体系的运转故障。这是美国的追求，也是美国利益的实质。
2，高油价的美国利益
目前美国是建立在负债基础之上的超真实的联合组装体，是世界上的负债大王，大脑是美国的，心脏可能是中国和日本的。负债创造了美国经济的增长，营造了高油价、通货膨胀、货币贬值、低利率和金融工具的活跃惯习，解决美元纸币健康运转的核心就必须降低美国经济的负债水平，实现预期收入与当期收入的双向合理转换。美国目前已在调整这个结构，保尔森财长和伯南克主席正在推进美元体系的重大转型。截止2007年4月30日，美国政府债券为8,753.070万亿美元，其中政府间相互持有的数量为3,778.255万亿美元，投资者持有的数量为4,974.815万亿美元，目前美国经济转型要对付的难点和重点就是巨大的负债。如果减债成功了，建立适度的负债体量，美圆体系仍可能再造辉煌。
全球性的债务改变了美国，从某种角度而言，美国的意义已经不大了，美国的利益代表就是美元，美国已经成为一项投资工具，美国也成为融资主体。由此债务美国必然需要应对不断增长的危机，也需要大力制造经济的兴奋点和繁荣点，延债益美。
2007年8月激化的美国次贷危机大规模地冲击了美元纸币体系的转型，目前虽集美国官民结合的力量仍难以克服。因此最好的办法就是在美元纸币体系主导的最大宗商品—油气市场上制造一次繁荣，化解美元纸币体系基于次贷问题形成的局部危机。并构造这样一个局面：即消费国支付过高的油价制造产油国的美元财富；产油国又以美元储备或美元交易大大强化美国的资本顺差；产油国、消费国都为美国提供资本顺差服务的体制，维持这个运转制度就会为美元体系改革创造千载难逢的机遇，并维持美国的期货体系对全球大宗商品的绝对定价权。
为此，美国政府已经开始推进大规模消减预算赤字的战略，2007年2月布什政府向国会报告，计划到2012年消除赤字，实现财政平衡，5月布什政府进一步估计2007年美国赤字将降低到2441亿美元。目前美国政府已开始借鉴欧元体系的稳定经验，创造美元体系的第二春，创造美元体系的另一个巨大革命的时代。为此美国可能采取五项措施以扭转美元纸币体系的运转：其一，利用美圆纸币体系的优势，保持合理水平的通货膨胀，均衡降低美元负债总量，通货膨胀是纸币贬值的最好杀手。高油价全面制造的财富肯定大于通胀，甚至淹没通胀，因此高油价比低油价好，放大财富是美圆纸币体系的最大长处，它可以有效防止美国出现次贷危机以后的米牌反应。其二，保持贸易顺差，用纸币换取更多的全球产品和服务，同时大力发展美国的海外债权，对冲美国的国内负债水平，对称性降低中国等地外汇储备的纸币收益。高油价的实质是美元体系贬值，也是控制亚洲外汇储备的手段之一。因此油价的高低是次要的，重要的是需要美圆纸币交换。其三，采取有选择的汇率战，对外推行适度的美元贬值，保持美元体系对欧元体系的国际优势，有效防止国际储备向欧元的转换，高油价会加强目前美圆纸币的储备地位。其四，对内加强税收，维持美元债务体系的良性运转，较高的油价可以提高美国的税基。其五，充分发挥美国的金融智慧，创造更多更新的金融工具，弥补美元纸币体系的集资能力，继续保持美圆的资本顺差，高油价引致的大宗商品价格上涨是美国加大实现资本顺差的重要手段，也是让美国期货体系繁荣的关键点。其六，促进新的能源革命和技术革命，保持美元资产的升值，保持美元体系对欧元体系的国际优势，有效防止国际储备向欧元的转换。例如美国正在推进天然气水合物，又称可燃冰的能源变革。由于1立方米天然气水合物相当于164立方米的常规天然气，1998年5月24日美国参议院能源委员会通过1418号议案《天然气水合物研究与资源开发计划》，该议案强调：天然气水合物列入美国战略能源规划，要求2015年美国能源部实施商业性开采。可燃冰的商业利用将改变能源美元的重大利益和国际政治版图，为美元转型创造机会。届时天然气水合物将扭转油气资源独秀的局面，因此，国际油气价格实际上在未来十到十五年内面临着上涨受到抑制的重大挑战，为此目前启动高油价可以实现最大的末日利润。其七，推进大宗资源性商品的金融属性的演化，构建美元体系新的复合基础，高油价作为第一冲击波是最为可行的。其八，全面发展以美国为中心的跨国公司的全球生产体系，保持对中、日、印等国的竞争力量，再建美国经济在消费和生产领域的双重优势，在全球美元实体经济和虚拟经济的大盘局中，相对降低美国的债务水平，高油价的本质是再一次巩固以美国为中心的大宗商品定价体系。
这个转型期长则10年左右，短则5年上下即可初步实现。改革成功了，美元即使从稳定性方面也将超过欧元；改革失败了，将是美元纸币体系的一次重大危机。从目前情况判断，由于美国掌握美元体系的全部主动权，转型成功的希望很高，然而美国必然以盘剥它国经济为代价，因此油气等大宗商品几乎是一个必然被选择的主体工具。
但是，我们也必须注意到美元体系调整面临的困难：为了应对2001年美国科技股的泡沫调整，格林斯潘将联邦基金利率即商业银行隔夜拆借利率从6.25%下调到1%，以配合克林顿政府刺激美国经济，此后又逐步回调到5.25%。伯南克主持的美联储在艰难做着减息的、低息的决定，也即美联储要用五厘以内的利率水平实现四个目标：即：对付通胀，保持资本顺差，促进国内消费增长和推动全球经济稳定，这是非常高的经济调控难度。
3，面对高油价的中国选择
面对国际高油价的上涨，中国必然应有两个选择,其一，利用中国的需求调节国际市场，以强化开发国内油气资源的战略大举替代进口。加快参与全球油气价格的定价运转，目前中国政府应全面改变油气上涨的中国预期因素。其二，果断地放开成品油价格，建立政府指导的多层次的成品油市场价格运转体制，因此10月31日即开始调整国内成品油价格是完全必要的，它将改变中国能源企业的估值体系；改变全球石油贸易的运转；改变全球石油期货走势。而且还应尽快地建立汽油以外的柴油、石脑油等成品油与国际成品油挂钩的市场运转体制。
近日国际原油价格出现了超过９０美元的过快跳长，引转了包括中国在内的全球所有重大利益集团的对弈，它使全球每年４０亿吨左右的原油产量成为新的造富平台；它使全球每年用于石油出口贸易的近２０亿吨原油价值大幅上涨超过４０００多亿美元；最重要的是它使以美元定价的数万亿的国际石油期货交易牛气旺盛，再造了国际资本新的繁荣点。值此美国调整次贷危机之时，成为修补美元纸币体系高速运转的故障部件的强大支持力量。
与此同时，单薄而又扭曲的中国成品油定价体制饱受煎熬，中国部分地区近日甚至出现油荒。中国油荒的实质一方面祸起美元，祸由美国；另一方面也反映了拥有巨大的进出口贸易总量，又实行不完全市场化运转的国家大宗商品管理、特别是油气价格管理的重大制度缺陷。这种缺陷正使得中国利益面临人为刀俎，我为鱼肉的惨局。构成这个鲜美鱼肉的至少有两道大餐，同时它们也是中国与全球交往的两条最重要的战略价格通道，其一是１９９４年以来中国实行的强制性结售汇和外汇占款制度，它使人民币采取了紧盯美元为主的一篮子货币政策。这种类似固定汇率的汇率制度，在人民币不断升值的预期内，中国资产的预期收益已经转化为当期价格和现价体系，热钱入华导致处于转型中的当代中国出现了流动性过剩，由此也迫使当代中国发展需要同时应对通胀和升值两大世界性难题；其二就是中国的大宗商品，特别是成品油的行政性定价体制，它使世界上的第二大成品油消费国的成品油与国家行政主管部门的行政调控政策挂钩，也即行政部门决定中国最大宗商品的价格，从而使中国的成品油价格具有行政与市场双重属性。而且成品油的行政价格调控还往往成为主导，由此它使跨国资本可以肆无忌惮地拉高国际原油期货价格，并借助中国对国际原油的巨大需求向中国的经济运行体系输出商品通胀，使得国际资源性商品的价格的预期收益转化为中国的生产成本、消费成本；由此高油价也导致了中国能源企业难于有效的开展全面改革并成功地向国际上输出生产上涨的生产成本，迫使中国的发展需要应对资源性商品全面通胀和加快经济转型的民族生存难题。
因此，无论是人民币的升值，还是成品油的行政性定价问题，都反映了目前以行政力量定价中国与全球交往的价格通道的运转的后果，它不但有增长的好处，也是吃大亏的传导载体。目前中国这种成品油与国际成品油的价格倒挂，成品油价格由行政机制主导的特殊能源价格政策是国际上的一种典型的人治体制，也必然是过渡性的、临时的。同时也是需要行政部门展现英雄精神，甚至超人意志的体制，它既透支国家的行政资源，也使最需要市场化的能源商品人为的与活跃的市场价格变动脱节，因此往往弊大于利。
油价下调，人民未必享受好处；油价上涨，企业又需要国家补贴。这种人造的对国际投机力量炒高油价的包容，变相地支持了美元的贬值，使美国顺利的索引中国、日本、印度等的亚洲美元储蓄运转，而且还可以再造国际大宗商品价格的繁荣以弥补国际次贷的损失，以高油价的综效反应阻断次贷在国际金融体系的传导，恢复美元纸币体系的活力，并使美国成为高油价的最大赢家。
因此，油气价格的跳长得到了美国经济领袖的联合力挺。美联储前主席格林斯潘１０月３０日表示：油价上升损害全球经济的增长，唯油价即使升到１００美元也不是坏事。美国财长保尔森１０月２６日则表示：油气不断上涨对美国经济并不产生积极作用，但高油价对美国经济的负面影响并不大。美国能源部长博得曼近日更表示：原油价格大幅上扬是由供求不平衡造成的，而非投机炒作所致。美国经济领袖对高油价的瞻评说明：油市繁荣的目的就是要造就国际大宗商品上涨的繁荣。它的繁荣不但要避免石油和大宗商品期货市场形成继次贷危机之后又一个体系散架的米牌反应，从而促生一次以美国为主的全面的金融危机，而且其繁荣还将修复次贷问题造成的国际金融体系的运转故障。这是美国的追求，也是美国利益的实质。
2，高油价的美国利益
目前美国是建立在负债基础之上的超真实的联合组装体，是世界上的负债大王，大脑是美国的，心脏可能是中国和日本的。负债创造了美国经济的增长，营造了高油价、通货膨胀、货币贬值、低利率和金融工具的活跃惯习，解决美元纸币健康运转的核心就必须降低美国经济的负债水平，实现预期收入与当期收入的双向合理转换。美国目前已在调整这个结构，保尔森财长和伯南克主席正在推进美元体系的重大转型。截止2007年4月30日，美国政府债券为8,753.070万亿美元，其中政府间相互持有的数量为3,778.255万亿美元，投资者持有的数量为4,974.815万亿美元，目前美国经济转型要对付的难点和重点就是巨大的负债。如果减债成功了，建立适度的负债体量，美圆体系仍可能再造辉煌。
全球性的债务改变了美国，从某种角度而言，美国的意义已经不大了，美国的利益代表就是美元，美国已经成为一项投资工具，美国也成为融资主体。由此债务美国必然需要应对不断增长的危机，也需要大力制造经济的兴奋点和繁荣点，延债益美。
2007年8月激化的美国次贷危机大规模地冲击了美元纸币体系的转型，目前虽集美国官民结合的力量仍难以克服。因此最好的办法就是在美元纸币体系主导的最大宗商品—油气市场上制造一次繁荣，化解美元纸币体系基于次贷问题形成的局部危机。并构造这样一个局面：即消费国支付过高的油价制造产油国的美元财富；产油国又以美元储备或美元交易大大强化美国的资本顺差；产油国、消费国都为美国提供资本顺差服务的体制，维持这个运转制度就会为美元体系改革创造千载难逢的机遇，并维持美国的期货体系对全球大宗商品的绝对定价权。
为此，美国政府已经开始推进大规模消减预算赤字的战略，2007年2月布什政府向国会报告，计划到2012年消除赤字，实现财政平衡，5月布什政府进一步估计2007年美国赤字将降低到2441亿美元。目前美国政府已开始借鉴欧元体系的稳定经验，创造美元体系的第二春，创造美元体系的另一个巨大革命的时代。为此美国可能采取五项措施以扭转美元纸币体系的运转：其一，利用美圆纸币体系的优势，保持合理水平的通货膨胀，均衡降低美元负债总量，通货膨胀是纸币贬值的最好杀手。高油价全面制造的财富肯定大于通胀，甚至淹没通胀，因此高油价比低油价好，放大财富是美圆纸币体系的最大长处，它可以有效防止美国出现次贷危机以后的米牌反应。其二，保持贸易顺差，用纸币换取更多的全球产品和服务，同时大力发展美国的海外债权，对冲美国的国内负债水平，对称性降低中国等地外汇储备的纸币收益。高油价的实质是美元体系贬值，也是控制亚洲外汇储备的手段之一。因此油价的高低是次要的，重要的是需要美圆纸币交换。其三，采取有选择的汇率战，对外推行适度的美元贬值，保持美元体系对欧元体系的国际优势，有效防止国际储备向欧元的转换，高油价会加强目前美圆纸币的储备地位。其四，对内加强税收，维持美元债务体系的良性运转，较高的油价可以提高美国的税基。其五，充分发挥美国的金融智慧，创造更多更新的金融工具，弥补美元纸币体系的集资能力，继续保持美圆的资本顺差，高油价引致的大宗商品价格上涨是美国加大实现资本顺差的重要手段，也是让美国期货体系繁荣的关键点。其六，促进新的能源革命和技术革命，保持美元资产的升值，保持美元体系对欧元体系的国际优势，有效防止国际储备向欧元的转换。例如美国正在推进天然气水合物，又称可燃冰的能源变革。由于1立方米天然气水合物相当于164立方米的常规天然气，1998年5月24日美国参议院能源委员会通过1418号议案《天然气水合物研究与资源开发计划》，该议案强调：天然气水合物列入美国战略能源规划，要求2015年美国能源部实施商业性开采。可燃冰的商业利用将改变能源美元的重大利益和国际政治版图，为美元转型创造机会。届时天然气水合物将扭转油气资源独秀的局面，因此，国际油气价格实际上在未来十到十五年内面临着上涨受到抑制的重大挑战，为此目前启动高油价可以实现最大的末日利润。其七，推进大宗资源性商品的金融属性的演化，构建美元体系新的复合基础，高油价作为第一冲击波是最为可行的。其八，全面发展以美国为中心的跨国公司的全球生产体系，保持对中、日、印等国的竞争力量，再建美国经济在消费和生产领域的双重优势，在全球美元实体经济和虚拟经济的大盘局中，相对降低美国的债务水平，高油价的本质是再一次巩固以美国为中心的大宗商品定价体系。
这个转型期长则10年左右，短则5年上下即可初步实现。改革成功了，美元即使从稳定性方面也将超过欧元；改革失败了，将是美元纸币体系的一次重大危机。从目前情况判断，由于美国掌握美元体系的全部主动权，转型成功的希望很高，然而美国必然以盘剥它国经济为代价，因此油气等大宗商品几乎是一个必然被选择的主体工具。
但是，我们也必须注意到美元体系调整面临的困难：为了应对2001年美国科技股的泡沫调整，格林斯潘将联邦基金利率即商业银行隔夜拆借利率从6.25%下调到1%，以配合克林顿政府刺激美国经济，此后又逐步回调到5.25%。伯南克主持的美联储在艰难做着减息的、低息的决定，也即美联储要用五厘以内的利率水平实现四个目标：即：对付通胀，保持资本顺差，促进国内消费增长和推动全球经济稳定，这是非常高的经济调控难度。
3，面对高油价的中国选择
面对国际高油价的上涨，中国必然应有两个选择,其一，利用中国的需求调节国际市场，以强化开发国内油气资源的战略大举替代进口。加快参与全球油气价格的定价运转，目前中国政府应全面改变油气上涨的中国预期因素。其二，果断地放开成品油价格，建立政府指导的多层次的成品油市场价格运转体制，因此10月31日即开始调整国内成品油价格是完全必要的，它将改变中国能源企业的估值体系；改变全球石油贸易的运转；改变全球石油期货走势。而且还应尽快地建立汽油以外的柴油、石脑油等成品油与国际成品油挂钩的市场运转体制。
华盛顿时报：有钱的中国人很多很多
英国前首相丘吉尔曾说，在他父亲生活的１９世纪后半叶，“世界是少数人的……极少数人的”。他所指的不是今天这个世界，甚至也不是西方。他所说的“世界”是指英国，当时地球上最富有的国家。
自二战结束以来，我们业已见证了经济“奇迹”改变欧洲、日本以及其他亚洲国家。少数人已变成了许多人。但是，你绝不会料想到上海当前所发生的一切。人类历史上也许从未有过在如此短的时间内，造出如此多的建筑；人类的历史上也许从未有过如此多的人，能如此迅速地发家致富。
当美国人提到中国时，大多数人想到的是为了微薄工资而苦干的工人大军，他们生产出的产品不仅质量低劣而且经常造成危险，并且总是很便宜。我们觉得中国人偷走了我们的工作，并向我们出售常常被召回的垃圾产品。但在上海待个数日，就能使这些想法一扫而光，并获得另一种全新的视角。
上海在进行人类历史上最庞大的建筑活动。高楼大厦拔地而起，其数量比笔者在其他任何地方看到的都要多。上世纪７０年代，美国纽约市长纳尔逊·洛克菲勒重建纽约州首府奥尔巴尼，这个浩大的工程甚至改变了整个美国的建筑业。据一些专家称，上海如今对世界有着类似的影响。
一些建筑属于典型的“国际风格”现代派，一些则是“后现代”建筑。在西方人看来，许多建筑都有些怪异。这可能是某种建筑宣言，或者与风水有关。
许多人仍生活在旧式的“鸽子笼”和狭小的巷子里，那里洗完的衣服都是挂在横挑的竹竿上的。它们看上去整洁干净，据说许多居民不愿意搬到离市中心较远的新的楼房里。
街道和高速路上挤满了汽车。令人震惊的是，中国如今是世界第二大汽车市场，并且也是全球增长最快的汽车市场。路上跑的许多都是美国生产的别克车，偶尔会有福特车和雪佛兰车，更多的是中国生产的大众汽车。
在１９世纪，美国的商人梦想着进入中国的市场——向中国销售灯油，他们知道那里的人很穷，但人口众多，哪怕能分到市场的小小部分都能发大财。如今，有钱的中国人很多很多。所以，别以为中国人只会生产廉价货，我们应该想到他们是一切产品的消费者。
忘记灯油吧。我们错过了那个机会，他们如今都用上电了。但是，所有那些亮锃锃的浴室的管道呢？还有中国厕所的马桶呢？
自二战结束以来，我们业已见证了经济“奇迹”改变欧洲、日本以及其他亚洲国家。少数人已变成了许多人。但是，你绝不会料想到上海当前所发生的一切。人类历史上也许从未有过在如此短的时间内，造出如此多的建筑；人类的历史上也许从未有过如此多的人，能如此迅速地发家致富。
当美国人提到中国时，大多数人想到的是为了微薄工资而苦干的工人大军，他们生产出的产品不仅质量低劣而且经常造成危险，并且总是很便宜。我们觉得中国人偷走了我们的工作，并向我们出售常常被召回的垃圾产品。但在上海待个数日，就能使这些想法一扫而光，并获得另一种全新的视角。
上海在进行人类历史上最庞大的建筑活动。高楼大厦拔地而起，其数量比笔者在其他任何地方看到的都要多。上世纪７０年代，美国纽约市长纳尔逊·洛克菲勒重建纽约州首府奥尔巴尼，这个浩大的工程甚至改变了整个美国的建筑业。据一些专家称，上海如今对世界有着类似的影响。
一些建筑属于典型的“国际风格”现代派，一些则是“后现代”建筑。在西方人看来，许多建筑都有些怪异。这可能是某种建筑宣言，或者与风水有关。
许多人仍生活在旧式的“鸽子笼”和狭小的巷子里，那里洗完的衣服都是挂在横挑的竹竿上的。它们看上去整洁干净，据说许多居民不愿意搬到离市中心较远的新的楼房里。
街道和高速路上挤满了汽车。令人震惊的是，中国如今是世界第二大汽车市场，并且也是全球增长最快的汽车市场。路上跑的许多都是美国生产的别克车，偶尔会有福特车和雪佛兰车，更多的是中国生产的大众汽车。
在１９世纪，美国的商人梦想着进入中国的市场——向中国销售灯油，他们知道那里的人很穷，但人口众多，哪怕能分到市场的小小部分都能发大财。如今，有钱的中国人很多很多。所以，别以为中国人只会生产廉价货，我们应该想到他们是一切产品的消费者。
忘记灯油吧。我们错过了那个机会，他们如今都用上电了。但是，所有那些亮锃锃的浴室的管道呢？还有中国厕所的马桶呢？
中国反垄断法将动真格？
经过长期讨论，中国全国人大常务委员会周二通过反垄断法，新法定于2008年8月1日起施行。
据说中国的方便面生产厂家私下商定价格、垄断市场，损害消费者利益，引发群众不满，最终促成了反垄断法的制定和通过。新苏黎世报认为，其实中国食品业总体竞争激烈，而中国国家操控的行业垄断问题最为严重：
“中国大部分经济领域都处于严重的垄断或寡头卖主垄断状况。这些领域带有战略性国有企业的印记，与政府和无所不在的共产党紧密结合。尽管这些企业已登上股市，但它们多数仍然为国家所有，其业务活动受政治考虑和欲望的左右。许多这样的大集团提供的服务没有什么竞争力，但却收取超高的费用，它们的工作不透明，是政界及其干部的重要收入来源。
这个国家资本主义的‘中国股份公司’控制了中国股市的大多数资本。属于这个股份公司的有石油和天然气领域、整个电信和金融服务行业。国家保护银行，一再向银行提供大笔补贴，因为这些银行往往不是从经济、而是从政治角度做出决定，经常资助不能赢利的面子工程。银行为客户提供的服务很差，存款人获得的利息实际上是负数。”
正是由于国家控制的企业坚持垄断地位，反对自由竞争，中国的反垄断法经过千呼万唤才得以出台。那么，新出台的反垄断法将保持还是打破原有体制呢？新苏黎世报的文章最后写道：
“现在通过的法律版本给两者都留下了余地。法律规定禁止有损竞争的行为，必须实行市场价格，国有企业也须遵守这一法律。但是，法律又包括一些为了保护’国家利益’的例外规定，这样实际上可以随意巩固现有状况。规定中表达不清的地方是，外资参与的企业是否违反国家利益的问题有待从新做出解释。另外，法律提出，要按照竞争法原则审查专利保护。这两条都有可能被滥用，使外国竞争对手吃亏并把他们排挤出中国市场。
新的竞争法能否及如何改变中国的企业景观，取决于新法的执行情况。由于国家及其干部在经济界依然存在，所以难以想象，目前结构并不强大的反垄断部门在没有强有力的政治影响的条件下能够有效执法。驻北京的外国企业家联合会一致认为，中国的竞争环境带有至今仍不明确的政治意志烙印。但是，明年夏天毕竟有了竞争法和反垄断部门，外国投资者表示欢迎，不过他们也异口同声地希望中国政府能遵循国际做法，明确统一地贯彻法律规定。”
据说中国的方便面生产厂家私下商定价格、垄断市场，损害消费者利益，引发群众不满，最终促成了反垄断法的制定和通过。新苏黎世报认为，其实中国食品业总体竞争激烈，而中国国家操控的行业垄断问题最为严重：
“中国大部分经济领域都处于严重的垄断或寡头卖主垄断状况。这些领域带有战略性国有企业的印记，与政府和无所不在的共产党紧密结合。尽管这些企业已登上股市，但它们多数仍然为国家所有，其业务活动受政治考虑和欲望的左右。许多这样的大集团提供的服务没有什么竞争力，但却收取超高的费用，它们的工作不透明，是政界及其干部的重要收入来源。
这个国家资本主义的‘中国股份公司’控制了中国股市的大多数资本。属于这个股份公司的有石油和天然气领域、整个电信和金融服务行业。国家保护银行，一再向银行提供大笔补贴，因为这些银行往往不是从经济、而是从政治角度做出决定，经常资助不能赢利的面子工程。银行为客户提供的服务很差，存款人获得的利息实际上是负数。”
正是由于国家控制的企业坚持垄断地位，反对自由竞争，中国的反垄断法经过千呼万唤才得以出台。那么，新出台的反垄断法将保持还是打破原有体制呢？新苏黎世报的文章最后写道：
“现在通过的法律版本给两者都留下了余地。法律规定禁止有损竞争的行为，必须实行市场价格，国有企业也须遵守这一法律。但是，法律又包括一些为了保护’国家利益’的例外规定，这样实际上可以随意巩固现有状况。规定中表达不清的地方是，外资参与的企业是否违反国家利益的问题有待从新做出解释。另外，法律提出，要按照竞争法原则审查专利保护。这两条都有可能被滥用，使外国竞争对手吃亏并把他们排挤出中国市场。
新的竞争法能否及如何改变中国的企业景观，取决于新法的执行情况。由于国家及其干部在经济界依然存在，所以难以想象，目前结构并不强大的反垄断部门在没有强有力的政治影响的条件下能够有效执法。驻北京的外国企业家联合会一致认为，中国的竞争环境带有至今仍不明确的政治意志烙印。但是，明年夏天毕竟有了竞争法和反垄断部门，外国投资者表示欢迎，不过他们也异口同声地希望中国政府能遵循国际做法，明确统一地贯彻法律规定。”
美国制造业价值领先世界 远超中国
尽管中国有世界工厂之称，但美国研究人员发现，美国制造业所创造的产品价值在世界上仍然处于领先地位，大幅度领先于中国制造业。
研究人员指出，制造业工作岗位减少是全球范围的普遍现象，其主要原因是生产力显著提高，美国制造业近年来的大批裁员并不像一些批评人士所说的那样单纯是由于生产项目外包所致。
美国财经刊物福布斯杂志报导说，美中贸易的巨大逆差并不能说明美国制造业生产力的全貌。报导指出，中国只是在生产运动鞋、塑料玩具和服装等低成本和劳动密集型产品方面超过美国，而美国工厂的总产量实际上远远超过中国工厂，而且在价钱方面，美国产品远比中国产品值钱。
*美国制造业生产高增值产品*
美国智囊机构卡托研究所贸易政策研究中心副主任丹.艾肯森(Dan Ikenson)对美国之音表示，他从美国政府、联合国以及世界银行获得的数据中研究发现，美国制造业在世界上制造出来的产品总价值中占21%，跟 1995年的21.3%几乎持平，处于全球第一的地位没有改变。
他说，中国制造业在世界产品总价值中所占的份额正在增大，但是只有8%。
他说：“从中国工厂里每生产出来价值一美元的产品，美国工厂就生产出价值两美元50美分的产品。其主要原因是，美国工厂现在生产的是高增值的产品。你知道，我们生产飞机，我们生产价格高昂的通讯设备、人造卫星等成本较高的产品。从重量来看，中国工厂生产的东西多，但是以价值来计算的话，美国仍然在世界上是最多产的制造国。”
*生产力提高制造业就业人数下降*
他说：“在整个世界，制造业的就业人数都在下降，在中国也是如此。事实上，中国制造业丧失的工作机会比美国制造业还多，其原因也是因为生产力提高。而这并不是坏事。”
美国卡托研究所的研究员艾肯森说，随著生产力的大幅度提高，人们的生活水平和生活质量也在逐渐提高。他表示，人们可以通过高效率的生产把更多的人力物力节省下来投入到其他方面。
有专家指出，目前服务业在美国经济中所占的比例高达80%到85%，而侧重于生产技术含量高和资本密集型产品的美国制造业仍然在美国和世界经济中发挥重要作用。
研究人员指出，制造业工作岗位减少是全球范围的普遍现象，其主要原因是生产力显著提高，美国制造业近年来的大批裁员并不像一些批评人士所说的那样单纯是由于生产项目外包所致。
美国财经刊物福布斯杂志报导说，美中贸易的巨大逆差并不能说明美国制造业生产力的全貌。报导指出，中国只是在生产运动鞋、塑料玩具和服装等低成本和劳动密集型产品方面超过美国，而美国工厂的总产量实际上远远超过中国工厂，而且在价钱方面，美国产品远比中国产品值钱。
*美国制造业生产高增值产品*
美国智囊机构卡托研究所贸易政策研究中心副主任丹.艾肯森(Dan Ikenson)对美国之音表示，他从美国政府、联合国以及世界银行获得的数据中研究发现，美国制造业在世界上制造出来的产品总价值中占21%，跟 1995年的21.3%几乎持平，处于全球第一的地位没有改变。
他说，中国制造业在世界产品总价值中所占的份额正在增大，但是只有8%。
他说：“从中国工厂里每生产出来价值一美元的产品，美国工厂就生产出价值两美元50美分的产品。其主要原因是，美国工厂现在生产的是高增值的产品。你知道，我们生产飞机，我们生产价格高昂的通讯设备、人造卫星等成本较高的产品。从重量来看，中国工厂生产的东西多，但是以价值来计算的话，美国仍然在世界上是最多产的制造国。”
*生产力提高制造业就业人数下降*
他说：“在整个世界，制造业的就业人数都在下降，在中国也是如此。事实上，中国制造业丧失的工作机会比美国制造业还多，其原因也是因为生产力提高。而这并不是坏事。”
美国卡托研究所的研究员艾肯森说，随著生产力的大幅度提高，人们的生活水平和生活质量也在逐渐提高。他表示，人们可以通过高效率的生产把更多的人力物力节省下来投入到其他方面。
有专家指出，目前服务业在美国经济中所占的比例高达80%到85%，而侧重于生产技术含量高和资本密集型产品的美国制造业仍然在美国和世界经济中发挥重要作用。
Is China's stock rally about to burst?
The bull that stands outside the Shanghai stock exchange could not be more apt.
The Chinese market has almost tripled in value this year as investors clamour for a slice of the world's fastest growing economy.
And if the shares of PetroChina soar when it lists in Shanghai next week, there's a chance the Chinese oil giant could become the world's most valuable quoted company, stealing the crown from ExxonMobil.
For some, this is a natural extension of China's economic rise.
For others, it's evidence of a massive stock market bubble that parallels the height of the dotcom boom.
Too hot?
China's market is displaying many of the classic warning signs of a bubble.
Cab drivers, college kids and Buddhist monks are making small fortunes in a frenzy of "chao gu" or stir frying stocks - Chinese slang for trading.
Internet chatrooms are abuzz with investment tips and reports say that millions of stock trading accounts are being opened each month.
People have a bullish feeling before the Olympics
Professor Yao Shujie, China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham
Investment guru Warren Buffett, who recently sold his Hong Kong-listed PetroChina shares for a huge profit, warned last week that China is too hot to buy.
By most conventional yardsticks, valuations of many of China's largest shares do look stretched.
China's main stock index trades at more than 50 times projected earnings of the companies listed on it, almost triple that of major European and US stock markets.
Different standards
Shanghai-based fund manager Chris Ruffle says China's market cannot be judged by the same standards as other exchanges.
Inflation exceeds the return on bank deposits and real estate has lost its appeal following measures taken by Chinese authorities.
Strict investment rules forbid Chinese households from putting their $2.3 trillion savings in overseas assets, leaving China's stock market the only option.
"If it was a normal market it would be overheated, but it's a closed system here," says Mr Ruffle, who manages a $3bn fund for Martin Currie, an investment management business with its headquarters in Edinburgh.
Mr Ruffle says that companies have enjoyed explosive profit growth of 30% in recent years and this could pick up pace as management techniques at state-run firms improve.
"Attitudes are changing. Managers regard themselves as executives rather than civil servants," says Mr Ruffle.
He plans to steer clear of big-name Chinese companies like PetroChina, but says he can still find good value firms in sectors such as healthcare, where the Chinese government is channelling investment.
Record listing
One factor behind the market's white-hot rally has been a slew of stock market listings. In the third quarter alone, China hosted 75 share offerings.
Many recent debuts have been household names in China and a big draw for local investors' cash.
BIGGEST FIRMS BY MARKET VALUE
ExxonMobil
PetroChina
General Electric
China Mobile
ICBC
Gazprom
Sinopec
AT&T
BP
China Life
Source: Reuters
PetroChina, which is also listed in Hong Kong and New York, said this week it raised almost $9bn from its share sale, the largest amount raised in Shanghai to date.
"Prior to 2006, there were few big heavyweight firms listing in Shanghai," says Professor Yao Shujie, at Nottingham University's China Policy Institute.
"If prices continue to rocket when it's smaller firms doing [initial public offerings], to me that's a much clearer sign of a bubble."
Chinese authorities have taken some steps to cool the market but investors have so far paid little heed.
There is a strong conviction that the government will not allow a huge crash in share prices.
"People have a bullish feeling before the Olympics," says Professor Yao.
"They believe the government will do what it can support the market in case of difficulty therefore they are not so cautious about protecting their investments."
Political fallout
A crash would have political ramifications for China's leaders, who have staked their legitimacy on maintaining a breakneck pace of economic growth.
Ordinary urban Chinese would be the biggest victims of any crash, with foreign investment in the Shanghai market still subject to limits.
"When it does fall it will be the middle classes marching on the streets," says Kerry Brown, associate fellow at international affairs think tank Chatham House.
"It would cause unease among those that have kept out of politics for the past two decades and dent confidence in the Communist Party's economic management."
The stock market boom has given China five of the world's 10 biggest companies by market value.
For now this is a source of pride for China's government, but it is an honour that could turn into a big headache.
The Chinese market has almost tripled in value this year as investors clamour for a slice of the world's fastest growing economy.
And if the shares of PetroChina soar when it lists in Shanghai next week, there's a chance the Chinese oil giant could become the world's most valuable quoted company, stealing the crown from ExxonMobil.
For some, this is a natural extension of China's economic rise.
For others, it's evidence of a massive stock market bubble that parallels the height of the dotcom boom.
Too hot?
China's market is displaying many of the classic warning signs of a bubble.
Cab drivers, college kids and Buddhist monks are making small fortunes in a frenzy of "chao gu" or stir frying stocks - Chinese slang for trading.
Internet chatrooms are abuzz with investment tips and reports say that millions of stock trading accounts are being opened each month.
People have a bullish feeling before the Olympics
Professor Yao Shujie, China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham
Investment guru Warren Buffett, who recently sold his Hong Kong-listed PetroChina shares for a huge profit, warned last week that China is too hot to buy.
By most conventional yardsticks, valuations of many of China's largest shares do look stretched.
China's main stock index trades at more than 50 times projected earnings of the companies listed on it, almost triple that of major European and US stock markets.
Different standards
Shanghai-based fund manager Chris Ruffle says China's market cannot be judged by the same standards as other exchanges.
Inflation exceeds the return on bank deposits and real estate has lost its appeal following measures taken by Chinese authorities.
Strict investment rules forbid Chinese households from putting their $2.3 trillion savings in overseas assets, leaving China's stock market the only option.
"If it was a normal market it would be overheated, but it's a closed system here," says Mr Ruffle, who manages a $3bn fund for Martin Currie, an investment management business with its headquarters in Edinburgh.
Mr Ruffle says that companies have enjoyed explosive profit growth of 30% in recent years and this could pick up pace as management techniques at state-run firms improve.
"Attitudes are changing. Managers regard themselves as executives rather than civil servants," says Mr Ruffle.
He plans to steer clear of big-name Chinese companies like PetroChina, but says he can still find good value firms in sectors such as healthcare, where the Chinese government is channelling investment.
Record listing
One factor behind the market's white-hot rally has been a slew of stock market listings. In the third quarter alone, China hosted 75 share offerings.
Many recent debuts have been household names in China and a big draw for local investors' cash.
BIGGEST FIRMS BY MARKET VALUE
ExxonMobil
PetroChina
General Electric
China Mobile
ICBC
Gazprom
Sinopec
AT&T
BP
China Life
Source: Reuters
PetroChina, which is also listed in Hong Kong and New York, said this week it raised almost $9bn from its share sale, the largest amount raised in Shanghai to date.
"Prior to 2006, there were few big heavyweight firms listing in Shanghai," says Professor Yao Shujie, at Nottingham University's China Policy Institute.
"If prices continue to rocket when it's smaller firms doing [initial public offerings], to me that's a much clearer sign of a bubble."
Chinese authorities have taken some steps to cool the market but investors have so far paid little heed.
There is a strong conviction that the government will not allow a huge crash in share prices.
"People have a bullish feeling before the Olympics," says Professor Yao.
"They believe the government will do what it can support the market in case of difficulty therefore they are not so cautious about protecting their investments."
Political fallout
A crash would have political ramifications for China's leaders, who have staked their legitimacy on maintaining a breakneck pace of economic growth.
Ordinary urban Chinese would be the biggest victims of any crash, with foreign investment in the Shanghai market still subject to limits.
"When it does fall it will be the middle classes marching on the streets," says Kerry Brown, associate fellow at international affairs think tank Chatham House.
"It would cause unease among those that have kept out of politics for the past two decades and dent confidence in the Communist Party's economic management."
The stock market boom has given China five of the world's 10 biggest companies by market value.
For now this is a source of pride for China's government, but it is an honour that could turn into a big headache.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
China Netcom to open London headquarters
China Netcom, China's second largest fixed-line telephone company, will on Thursday open a London office that will be its European headquarters.
China Netcom is looking to use its global telecoms network to serve the voice and data needs of Chinese companies with operations in Europe, said one person familiar with the situation. It also wants to serve the telecoms needs of European companies with operations in China.
The move by China Netcom is part of efforts by Chinese companies to expand overseas under the Beijing government's "go global" policy. The government wants to ensure that Chinese companies can compete with US, Japanese and European companies.
China Netcom's telecoms network extends to cities in Asia, Europe and the US, and it is looking to expand it further, said the person familiar with the company's plans.
The London office will be opened by Jidong Zhao, China Netcom's senior vice-president.
Its efforts to serve the voice and data needs of multinationals will pit it against European and US telecoms companies such as BT, AT&T and Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ).
China Netcom is not the first Chinese telecoms company to open a London office. China Telecom, China's largest fixed-line company, opened a London office in 2005. Like China Netcom, China Telecom is looking to serve the telecoms needs of Chinese companies with operations in Europe.
Huawei and ZTE, the increasingly powerful Chinese telecoms equipment makers, opened London offices in 2002 and 2004. They were initially sales offices but now also focus on financing.
Telefónica, the Spanish telecoms company with a leading presence in Latin America, on Tuesday said it hoped to increase its minority stake in China Netcom to 10 per cent by the end of the year. Vodafone, the UK mobile phone group, has a 3 per cent stake in China Mobile, China's largest mobile operator, which plans to open a London office early next year.
China Netcom is looking to use its global telecoms network to serve the voice and data needs of Chinese companies with operations in Europe, said one person familiar with the situation. It also wants to serve the telecoms needs of European companies with operations in China.
The move by China Netcom is part of efforts by Chinese companies to expand overseas under the Beijing government's "go global" policy. The government wants to ensure that Chinese companies can compete with US, Japanese and European companies.
China Netcom's telecoms network extends to cities in Asia, Europe and the US, and it is looking to expand it further, said the person familiar with the company's plans.
The London office will be opened by Jidong Zhao, China Netcom's senior vice-president.
Its efforts to serve the voice and data needs of multinationals will pit it against European and US telecoms companies such as BT, AT&T and Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ).
China Netcom is not the first Chinese telecoms company to open a London office. China Telecom, China's largest fixed-line company, opened a London office in 2005. Like China Netcom, China Telecom is looking to serve the telecoms needs of Chinese companies with operations in Europe.
Huawei and ZTE, the increasingly powerful Chinese telecoms equipment makers, opened London offices in 2002 and 2004. They were initially sales offices but now also focus on financing.
Telefónica, the Spanish telecoms company with a leading presence in Latin America, on Tuesday said it hoped to increase its minority stake in China Netcom to 10 per cent by the end of the year. Vodafone, the UK mobile phone group, has a 3 per cent stake in China Mobile, China's largest mobile operator, which plans to open a London office early next year.
State funds and banks lead China's hunt
China's National Council for Social Security Fund is an unlikely candidate to buy into US private equity groups, but the disclosure in Tuesday's Financial Times that it has held preliminary talks about buying stakes in companies such as Carlyle and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts underlines how dramatically China's global ambitions have grown.
The fund joins a number of large state institutions investing overseas, such as China Investment Corp, the newly-established sovereign fund, and China Development Bank, a specialist lender for infrastructure projects.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest lender, last week struck a deal to pay $5.56bn for a stake in Standard Bank in South Africa, and Citic Securities recently bought into the troubled US firm Bear Stearns. Other big Chinese commercial banks are hunting for deals.
The sudden flood of overseas deals runs parallel with a wave of foreign equity investment by Chinese entities through mandates issued by the securities regulator.
Since September, $37bn (£17.9bn, EU25.6bn) in subscriptions has been received by four funds each approved to raise $16bn. JPMorgan says it expects Beijing to approve another $20bn by mid-December and a total of up to $90bn by the end of next year.
The broad framework allowing investment overseas has been laid down gradually by the central government in the last three years or so, with a variety of policy objectives in mind.
The portfolio investment is driven by a need to gain greater returns and spread risks away from the domestic market, as well as relieve the pressure on the financial system from huge capital inflows.
CDB, meanwhile, is heading overseas with a quite different mandate - to support Chinese investment in Africa and to test its ambitions to become a force in global development finance.
The drive offshore by China's big state banks, although under the wary eye of the regulators, is more driven by their commercial ambitions than acentral government plan.
"I don't really see [the banks] as being driven by the state pushing people out the door, overseas," said Jonathan Anderson, of UBS, in Hong Kong. "This is primarily being driven by the corporates themselves."
For deal-hungry global investment banks, the Chinese institutions they once chased for overseas stock market listings are now becoming valuable merger and acquisition clients.
"Chinese companies are being assiduously courted by dealmakers - and no wonder. They are cash-rich and the beneficiaries of a bull market," said Jing Ulrich, of JPMorgan, in Hong Kong.
However, one common challenge facing the Chinese institutions is the lack of global experience, both in investing overseas and running enterprises in foreign countries.
In the case of the social security fund, its most experienced global manager, Gao Xiqing, who has extensive experience on Wall St, has been shifted in recent months to a senior post at the sovereign fund.
The fund's talks with US firms surprised some market observers, who say they would not have expected it to tie up money in large, illiquid investments.
However, the fund might be being driven by a sense of competition with other Chinese state investors and may have pressed to be allowed access to similar investment opportunities.
For all the headlines, the wave of Chinese capital heading overseas is at an early stage and its impact on markets, perhaps aside from Hong Kong, is limited in terms of investments flows. "They are very small players at the moment," said Mr Anderson.
Politically and psychologically, however, the impact is much larger.
Background
Established in 2000, the National Council for Social Security Fund was part of China's strategy to fill the gaping holes left in its pension policies by the collapse of large swathes of state industry.
The NCSSF does not attempt to cover the entire country's pension needs, but is a kind of national pension fund of last resort, with no designated members eligible for benefits. It has assets Rmb460bn ($62bn, EU43bn, £30bn).
Much revenue came from the offshore initial public offerings of state companies, which had to put 10 per cent of money raised into the fund.
The fund joins a number of large state institutions investing overseas, such as China Investment Corp, the newly-established sovereign fund, and China Development Bank, a specialist lender for infrastructure projects.
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's largest lender, last week struck a deal to pay $5.56bn for a stake in Standard Bank in South Africa, and Citic Securities recently bought into the troubled US firm Bear Stearns. Other big Chinese commercial banks are hunting for deals.
The sudden flood of overseas deals runs parallel with a wave of foreign equity investment by Chinese entities through mandates issued by the securities regulator.
Since September, $37bn (£17.9bn, EU25.6bn) in subscriptions has been received by four funds each approved to raise $16bn. JPMorgan says it expects Beijing to approve another $20bn by mid-December and a total of up to $90bn by the end of next year.
The broad framework allowing investment overseas has been laid down gradually by the central government in the last three years or so, with a variety of policy objectives in mind.
The portfolio investment is driven by a need to gain greater returns and spread risks away from the domestic market, as well as relieve the pressure on the financial system from huge capital inflows.
CDB, meanwhile, is heading overseas with a quite different mandate - to support Chinese investment in Africa and to test its ambitions to become a force in global development finance.
The drive offshore by China's big state banks, although under the wary eye of the regulators, is more driven by their commercial ambitions than acentral government plan.
"I don't really see [the banks] as being driven by the state pushing people out the door, overseas," said Jonathan Anderson, of UBS, in Hong Kong. "This is primarily being driven by the corporates themselves."
For deal-hungry global investment banks, the Chinese institutions they once chased for overseas stock market listings are now becoming valuable merger and acquisition clients.
"Chinese companies are being assiduously courted by dealmakers - and no wonder. They are cash-rich and the beneficiaries of a bull market," said Jing Ulrich, of JPMorgan, in Hong Kong.
However, one common challenge facing the Chinese institutions is the lack of global experience, both in investing overseas and running enterprises in foreign countries.
In the case of the social security fund, its most experienced global manager, Gao Xiqing, who has extensive experience on Wall St, has been shifted in recent months to a senior post at the sovereign fund.
The fund's talks with US firms surprised some market observers, who say they would not have expected it to tie up money in large, illiquid investments.
However, the fund might be being driven by a sense of competition with other Chinese state investors and may have pressed to be allowed access to similar investment opportunities.
For all the headlines, the wave of Chinese capital heading overseas is at an early stage and its impact on markets, perhaps aside from Hong Kong, is limited in terms of investments flows. "They are very small players at the moment," said Mr Anderson.
Politically and psychologically, however, the impact is much larger.
Background
Established in 2000, the National Council for Social Security Fund was part of China's strategy to fill the gaping holes left in its pension policies by the collapse of large swathes of state industry.
The NCSSF does not attempt to cover the entire country's pension needs, but is a kind of national pension fund of last resort, with no designated members eligible for benefits. It has assets Rmb460bn ($62bn, EU43bn, £30bn).
Much revenue came from the offshore initial public offerings of state companies, which had to put 10 per cent of money raised into the fund.
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